Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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811 FXUS64 KEWX 261722 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The upper level ridge remains centered northwest of the area today. Outside of a stray shower or two across the Coastal Plains, most of the area will remain dry and hot today. Far to the north of the area, we will be watching for a potential complex of storms this afternoon moving south around the ridge through Arkansas. Outflow from these storms may continue south and southwest tonight and into early Thursday morning through northeast Texas. We will keep an eye out for the possible outflow making into into the northeast forecast area overnight and Thursday. The vast majority of the guidance dissipates the convection well northeast of the area, however a few HREF members generate isolated showers and storms across Central Texas and the northeast forecast area during the day on Thursday. Global models indicate the ridge building back east over the area Thursday, which would help to limit this possibility. We saw more locations near and east of I-35 reach heat advisory criteria yesterday. With temperatures at or slightly warmer today, we will continue to see locations near the I-35 corridor and across the Coastal Plains into heat advisory criteria this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for this area. In addition, a few locations along the Rio Grande may get close to criteria, and we will issue a Special Weather Statement for this area. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast Thursday as heights increase with the aforementioned ridge building east. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Few changes for the long term forecast as the Subtropical High remains more or less parked over the southern CONUS. South Central Texas will remain on the southern periphery, with some very low chances of showers and storms over the Coastal Plains most afternoons. Ridging should build a bit more over the northeastern part of the state of Texas by this weekend, allowing flow to resume out of the east in the mid-levels. This should result in those aforementioned stray showers/storms over the Coastal Plains this weekend, especially on Sunday. Beyond that, the ridge builds back westward and shuts off any sort of sea breeze shower/storm activity. Temperatures will remain near normals for late June/early July, mainly in the mid to upper 90s and mornings in the mid to upper 70s. Heat indices in the 105-110 range will be common, and additional heat advisories may be needed. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Currently the San Antonio terminals are on the cusp of VFR ceilings and they should be VFR by the start of the this TAF period. AUS and DRT are both VFR and once the San Antonio area gets there all airports will remain in that category through the afternoon and evening. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue into the evening. We expect that only the San Antonio airports will see MVFR ceilings develop again tonight. There is a chance that they remain VFR, but we think the ceilings will move in. AUS and DRT will stay VFR through the entire period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 79 100 78 98 / 0 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 98 78 98 / 0 10 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 78 99 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 103 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 99 77 97 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 95 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 79 98 79 97 / 0 10 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 78 99 79 98 / 0 10 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays- Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...05