Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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507 FXUS64 KEWX 240533 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The main focus for the short term is heat. Heat index values this afternoon and Monday afternoon are expected to rise into the 100 to 110 range due to the combination of the subtropical ridge overhead, residual surface moisture from recent rain, and moisture advection from the Gulf. The Coastal Plains and portions of the I-35 corridor are expected to be the general area for the upper end of that range. As such a Heat Advisory may be needed for a few counties Monday afternoon. The main question is how efficient afternoon mixing will be for those counties. If drier air aloft is able to mix to the surface then dew points may drop enough to keep heat index values just shy of the 108 mark needed for an advisory. Regardless if an advisory is issued or not or if you`re outside of the above mentioned area, it is summer in south central Texas so be sure to take precautions when dealing with the outdoor heat. This will be of greater importance as we get further into the week (discussed in the long term section). A secondary focus for the short term is the chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours today and Monday as the seabreeze makes inland progress. Despite general downward trend in CAMs, will hang onto low end POPs across the Coastal Plains for both days. Should these storms develop, the primary concern would be brief locally heavy rain and possibly gusty winds due to precip drag. They would also get a very brief reprieve from the heat. Otherwise, dry (yet humid) conditions will prevail for the remainder of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A persistent summertime regime will prevail across South-Central Texas through the long term period as mid-level ridging dominates the pattern while broad surface high pressure extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Western Atlantic. Rain chances remain minimal with subsidence underneath the ridge. However, the ridge looks to start transitioning later this week and re-align farther to the east into and through this upcoming weekend. This realignment could help the seabreeze activate slightly better and possibly allow for isolated showers or convection to advance far enough inland to enter portions of our coastal plain counties. Otherwise, most locations will stay rain free. Despite the highs only slightly above average, heat will be the main hazard through the long term as dew points remain elevated and not as efficiently mixed each afternoon with the combination of the moist light to moderate flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the uptick in the soil moistures from recent rainfall. Elevated heat indices up into the 105 to 110 degree range could make Heat Advisories possible for portions of South-Central Texas each afternoon. The most favored locations are likely to align along and southeast of the I-35 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions prevail late this evening. Stratus is forecast to develop across portions of the I-35 corridor, Hill Country, and Coastal Plains pre-dawn Monday, producing MVFR ceilings. The stratus is expected to scatter out 14Z-16Z. Isolated SHRA/TSRA activity is forecast in the afternoon across the Coastal Plains. A few convective allowing models bring this isolated activity toward the SAT area around 00Z. Confidence and coverage is low, and therefore have excluded mention in the SAT/SSF TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 76 96 77 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 96 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 80 101 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 96 76 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 76 94 77 / 10 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 96 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 77 97 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...36 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...76