Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
504 FXUS64 KEWX 251713 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Have expanded the areal coverage slightly for spotty showers/weak convection through the afternoon across the coastal plains as radar trends already show showers percolating over the Victoria Crossroads and advancing northward into the coastal plains. There has been a few stray showers across the Hill County as well around Kerr/Bandera counties this morning but these showers are likely to dissipate within the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The upper level ridge is forecast to center northwest of the area, with the southeast periphery of the ridge still maintaining an influence over most of the area today. With the exception of a 10- 20% chance of stray to isolated tropical showers across portions of Lavaca and DeWitt counties this afternoon, the area is forecast to remain dry, warm, and humid today. We saw a few locations east of I- 35 briefly reach heat advisory criteria late yesterday, and with temperatures at or slightly warmer today we are forecasting a larger area of peak heat index values of 105-110 degrees along and east of the I-35 and I-37 corridors. We have issued a Heat Advisory for this area today and another advisory on Wednesday could be required. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The long term forecast will continue to revolve around the influence of a 500mb Subtropical Ridge in place over the southwestern and south-central CONUS. Hot and dry weather is expected area-wide Thursday as temperatures soar into the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will likely climb into Heat Advisory territory for the Coastal Plains, and perhaps as far west as the I-35 Corridor. A similar setup can be expected on Friday, however, 500mb heights weaken just a bit, opening the door for some seabreeze activity over the Coastal Plains by late afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 108-112 range over the Coastal Plains and portions of the I-35 Corridor. This daily chance at a shower or storm will continue through the weekend into early next week as weak easterly flow remains in place on the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge. Expect typical Summer heat through early next week with highs in the 90s and heat indices in the 105-110 range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR flight conditions prevail at the area TAF sites throughout the afternoon into this evening with few to sct fair weather cumulus. Any spotty shower activity through early evening should stay to the east of the sites within the coastal plain counties. Stratus with MVFR ceilings will redevelop at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT and KSSF) overnight into Wednesday morning. KDRT remains VFR but some scattered low clouds could reach the site around/after sunrise. All sites should see returning VFR flight conditions into and through Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate winds prevail from out of the east-southeast to south-southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 79 99 78 99 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 78 97 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 78 97 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 77 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 102 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 77 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 77 96 75 96 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 79 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 79 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes- Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...MMM Aviation...Brady