132
FXUS62 KFFC 271751
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

At a glance:

    - Chances for afternoon thunderstorms today and tomorrow

    - Brief reprieve from highs in the 90s for western Georgia

An impressive airmass change is underway, led by a mid-level
shortwave swinging across the Southeast, and moist southwesterly
flow off of the open Gulf. PWATs on yesterday`s 26/12Z sounding were
approximately 0.9" (just below the 10th percentile per SPC`s
sounding climatology) and are forecast to balloon to 2" or higher
by early afternoon today -- approaching and potentially exceeding
daily climatological maximums. With a substantial increase in
moisture, and lift provided by a cold front that will slowly be
nudged across the forecast area by the movement of the
aforementioned shortwave, north and central Georgia`s best rain
chances in several days will come today and carry through
tomorrow.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will initially be relegated to
northwest Georgia through the morning, but will spread southeastward
with afternoon heating, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms
then possible until sunset. Thermodynamic profiles aloft are fairly
weak (still evidence of multiple weak capping versions above the
mixed layer on the 27/00Z sounding), so not expecting widespread
severe chances by any means. However, with a quasi-tropical airmass
in place, water-loaded downdrafts on an especially strong upward
pulse may be able to produce damaging wind gusts on the way down. A
Marginal Risk has been analyzed across the southern half of the area
by the Storm Prediction Center to highlight the potential for an
isolated downburst.

Mid-level flow weakens moving into Friday, but moisture remains in
place, so expect much the same to round off the work week: diurnally-
driven convection peaking in the afternoon, with a low but non-zero
chance of an isolated strong to marginally severe storm.

Our surge in moisture will be counteracted by a decrease in high
temperatures today, most substantial across the northern half of the
area where cloud cover will be thickest. Highs will top out in the
mid-to-upper 80s north of I-85, and in the mid-90s elsewhere. On
Friday, much of the area will creep back into the 90s, aside from
the terrain of northeast Georgia which will remain in the upper-70s
to lower-80s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Broad upper level ridging is expected to be in place over much of
the eastern CONUS as the period begins on Friday night, and persist
into the weekend. A more typical summertime pattern is expected
underneath this pattern, with diurnally-driven convection leading to
thunderstorms each afternoon across the area. Dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s and precipitable water values increasing to 1.8 to 2
inches will be sufficient to warrant scattered to numerous coverage
across the area each day, with PoPs ranging from 45-65 percent
across the area each afternoon. Aside from high temperatures in the
80s in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, highs are
forecast to be in the low to mid 90s on Saturday, and will climb a
couple of degrees across the area on Sunday afternoon. These highs,
combined with the aforementioned dewpoints in the 70s, will
contribute to heat index values in the triple digits across the much
of the forecast area through the weekend. Many locations,
particularly south of I-85, could see heat indices in excess of 105
which would warrant heat headlines each day.

Late Sunday into early Monday, a low pressure system over southeast
Canada will extend a weakening cold front into the Tennessee Valley
region, which will provide a focus for additional thunderstorms as
it advances southward through the forecast area. Drier air will
attempt to build into north Georgia as northwesterly flow filters
into the area behind the frontal boundary. Dewpoints are forecast to
briefly drop into the 60s in north Georgia behind the frontal
boundary on Monday and Monday night. In any case, scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will develop once again on Monday afternoon,
although highest chances will be focused in central Georgia where
higher dewpoints remain. Upper level ridging will set up over the
region once again by Tuesday. Meanwhile, easterly to southeasterly
flow will bring in additional low level moisture, ensuring the
relatively drier conditions in north Georgia will be short-lived.
Hot, humid conditions and diurnal thunderstorms are thus expected to
continue through midweek.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions through tonight except in -TSRA. -TSRA and vcsh remains
possibly through roughly 00Z. Winds may be gusty and variable
within -TSRA. Winds W to NW in metro, SW south of TSRA boundary.
Winds could be vrb through this evening due to outflows. Winds
light to vrb overnight become SE tomorrow morning. VSBY across
central GA may drop overnight with light winds to around 4SM,
metro should remain clear. CIGS drop around 07Z and may fall to
IFR briefly around 12Z, though may remain sct rather than bkn.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium Confidence CIGS tomorrow morning.
Medium Confidence Winds this evening.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  72  91 /  20  50  50  70
Atlanta         72  90  74  91 /  20  50  50  70
Blairsville     67  84  69  84 /  20  50  50  90
Cartersville    70  91  73  91 /  20  50  50  80
Columbus        73  92  74  92 /  30  60  50  60
Gainesville     72  87  73  88 /  20  50  50  80
Macon           72  92  73  94 /  30  60  40  60
Rome            71  92  74  92 /  10  50  40  80
Peachtree City  71  91  72  91 /  20  50  50  60
Vidalia         75  94  75  96 /  30  70  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...SM