Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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947 FXUS62 KFFC 012351 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 751 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 An upper level high pressure center remains centered over northeast Texas, with ridging extending across much of the Southeast and into the Great Lakes region. A weak cold front is advancing slowly southward into the forecast area as surface high pressure associated with the ridge advances eastward. Drier and more stable air has begun to filter into far northwest Georgia. However, candidness ahead of the front remain very hot and humid, with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. With dewpoints remaining in the 70s ahead of the frontal boundary, heat index values in excess of 100 have already been observed in locations along and south of I-20 this afternoon. Furthermore, heat indices of 105-108 are expected across portions of central Georgia during the peak heating hours, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for this area. At the time of this writing, isolated showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop roughly along and south of an axis from Athens to Macon. Additional convection is expected to develop, primarily in central and east Georgia, through the remainder of the afternoon considering ample instability ahead of the frontal boundary. With SBCAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg, fairly steep low-level lapse rates, and DCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg, a few stronger storms will be possible, which will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. As the cold front advances further into the area and the aforementioned surface high advances further east into New York, surface ridging will advance into northeast Georgia and advance southwestward. Isentropic lift near the leading edge of this surface ridge could lead to the development of some isolated showers late tonight. Some hi-res model guidance similarly continues to indicate the potential for nocturnal showers near and south of the Atlanta metro area during the overnight hours, as well. By Tuesday morning, the frontal boundary is expected to stall in south-central Georgia. Temperatures are forecast to be milder behind the front throughout the day. Low temperatures on Tuesday morning are expected to mainly range from the upper 60s to low 70s in north Georgia and in the low to mid 70s in central Georgia. Lows in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia could even drop as low as the upper 50s. Furthermore, high temperatures will mainly range from the mid 80s to near 90. Dewpoints will be mainly in the mid to upper 50s roughly northeast of the Atlanta metro area, and in the 60s to the south. Dewpoints in the low 70s may linger in the far southern tier of counties near the vicinity of the stalled front. The relatively milder, drier conditions will keep heat index values from reaching as high as we`ve seen the last few days, and heat headlines will mercifully not be needed. Minimal rain chances are expected on Tuesday along in north Georgia, where the lowest dewpoints are forecast. In central Georgia, there will be a gradient of PoPs that will increase further south with closer vicinity to the stalled front and with increasing low-level moisture. At their highest, low- end likely PoPs are forecast across the southern tier of the forecast area during the afternoon, then diminishing after sunset. King && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 At a glance: -Afternoon thunderstorms and heat will be the main story through the long term. -A weak low pressure will bring a band of showers and thunderstorms to northern GA on Friday afternoon. Not a lot of changes to the forecast this time around. Temperatures will remain largely in the 90s through the forecast period with lows in the 70s. The biggest feature through the long term will be a front that moves in from the NW on Friday afternoon. The associated upper level trough is relatively flat considering the parent low will move through the Great Lakes region. As a result, severe weather seem unlikely but a few thunderstorms will be possible. Rainfall totals don`t appear like they`ll help ease any of the drought conditions we`re falling into with totals being less than a tenth. The front is quick to move out, and doesn`t seem to want to provide any significant temp relief either. By the time the weekend rolls around, we`ll be back in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. Vaughn && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 744 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Winds have shifted to the east as outflow and mid-Atlantic airmass pushes into TAF sites. Some SHRA noted in and around metro TAF sites, with convection having just moved through MCN. TSRA will be possible at MCN/CSG through next few hours. SHRA continuation around metro sites a bit more uncertain, and will be evaluated at future TAF issuances/AMD. Cigs tonight expected to build in at MCN/CSG to MVFR, possibly IFR. Northward extent uncertain - have included TEMPO for low MVFR at ATL, but not other sites in metro. Winds will be ENE to ESE through TAF period, 7-12 kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence in evening/overnight VCSH/SHRA, medium morning cigs, high all others. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 85 68 90 / 10 10 20 20 Atlanta 71 86 71 91 / 20 10 10 20 Blairsville 63 82 63 85 / 10 0 10 20 Cartersville 70 88 69 93 / 10 10 10 20 Columbus 74 89 74 93 / 30 30 20 40 Gainesville 69 85 69 88 / 10 10 10 20 Macon 71 88 71 93 / 40 30 20 40 Rome 71 90 71 93 / 0 10 10 30 Peachtree City 70 87 70 91 / 20 10 10 20 Vidalia 73 87 74 92 / 50 50 30 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...Lusk