697
FXUS63 KFGF 250303
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into the
  early evening. Should thunderstorms develop, damaging wind
  gusts, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible.

- The next good chance for showers and storms looks to be
  Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Strong storms continue across portions of mainly northwest
Minnesota this evening. The cold front has progressed to the
southeast, with the best storm chances now along a line from
Fargo to Blackduck and areas to the south and east. The primary
risk through the remainder of the evening will be large hail up
to the size of ping pong balls.


UPDATE
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Storms are now forming along and ahead of the cold front, with
the strongest activity stretching along a line from Baudette
southwestward to around Mayville. Guidance continues to show a
large degree of variation regarding the potential evolution of
future development; however, the best chances for severe storms
will continue to exist along the aforementioned line and cold
front. As of this update, there have been reports of up to golf
ball sized hail and a few funnel clouds. This risk is expected
to continue through much of this evening as the front slowly
pushes to the east and southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...Synopsis...
Really there is no change to the previous thinking, there is a
lot of uncertainty in how any additional storms storms may or
may not develop yet today. The first 700mb wave is located over
the Minnesota arrowhead. Another one may be showing up over
southeast North Dakota and northeast South Dakota, which will
slide into western Minnesota late this afternoon into this
evening. This area is pretty well capped, with 700mb
temperatures of +10C to +14C. At the surface, the weak low has
been holding over central to east central South Dakota, sliding
east. Again, this is in the capped area so far. There is a cold
front over this FA, which appears to be along a Langdon to
south central North Dakota line (somewhere between Bismarck and
Jamestown). There has been some weak cumulus forming along this
line. One storm about an hour ago between Bismarck and Jamestown
kind of fizzled, although it was in the capped region. Overall
it seems like storms should have a chance to fire across the
central and northern Red River Valley along this front, which
will cross into Minnesota by early evening.

...This afternoon into early evening...
The HRRR has been showing some weaker convection forming along
the cold front over the central and northern Valley late this
afternoon and early evening. By early evening, it develops a
complex of storms around the Twin Cities, which it then
transitions to a bowing line of storms as they move to the
east-southeast. There are other CAMs which still show storms
developing over the southern Valley into west central Minnesota
late this afternoon and early evening, which they eventually
track along the highway 10 corridor toward the Twin Cities this
evening. So will be watching these two potential areas (along
the cold front and from the southern Valley into west central
Minnesota) from now through early evening for convective
development. As for parameters along and ahead of the cold
front, temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s over
northeast North Dakota with dewpoints in the low 70s. The SPC
meso page is showing SBCAPE values over 5000 J/kg with effective
shear around 35 knots. As for negatives for development along
the cold front, it is not really that strong (maybe more of a
dryline or trough) and there is no low level jet support in
this area. The low level jet should support any storms that take
off along the highway 10 corridor toward the Twin Cities.

...Thursday night into Friday...
Another fairly deep 700mb wave tracks into the Northern Plains
during this time frame, with all ensemble solutions showing a
fairly widespread footprint for convection. WPC did mention that
they may add a marginal risk for excessive rainfall up into this
area to cover this potential. Still a ways off, so will leave it
at that for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The primary impact to aviation this evening will be scattered
thunderstorms along a cold front stretching from Lake of the
Woods southwestward to around Cooperstown. Locations potentially
seeing VCTS or TSRA will be KTVF, KBJI, and KFAR primarily,
with lower chances at KGFK and KDVL. Otherwise, VFR conditions
prevail outside of thunderstorm activity with mostly clear skies
west of the cold front.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Lynch