175
FXUS63 KFGF 300554
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance for a strong thunderstorm to move into
  the Devils Lake basin late Sunday night.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Monday afternoon and evening across much of the forecast area,
  with a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along
  and south of Interstate 94.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
  through mid week. A system may then bring numerous showers and
  thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains on Independence
  Day, with a low chance for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Clear skies expected through tonight. Monitoring for the
development of fog with the surface high and our low level
moisture getting close to saturation in the early morning hours.
Otherwise forecast for tomorrow remains on track with
temperatures in the 70`s and some possible showers in the
overnight period Sunday into Monday.

UPDATE
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Clear skies prevail across much of the area this evening, with
only a few stray cirrus clouds over the Devils Lake Basin. The
forecast remains on track thus far, with temperatures in the low
to mid 50s. Lows are expected to fall well into the 40s for most
areas, with a rebound into the 70s Sunday afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 903 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Skies continue to clear across the forecast area this evening
with diminishing winds. High clouds over northwest into north
central ND will push into the Devils Lake basin shortly and
spread across the area overnight. Forecast low temperatures in
the lower to mid 40s look reasonable. The threat for fog looks
to be minimal but with recent rains, can`t rule out some patchy
ground fog here and there. Not enough certainty to add a
mention of fog to the forecast at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A cool but pleasant evening is expected across the area. Clouds
will continue to dissipate and winds diminish through the
evening. We made some minor adjustments to sky cover early this
evening, otherwise no changes were needed. Will take a look at
overnight low temperatures and potential for some patchy fog
with the late evening update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Fair weather cumulus continues to be found across much of the
CWA this afternoon along with some breezy northwest winds. Both
of these should diminish this evening through tonight as a
surface high moves into the area. If clouds fully clear out as
expected some cooler overnight lows in the 40s could be found.
Temperatures below 40 degrees are generally not expected as even
the NBM10th percentile keeps temperatures at or above 40. With
light winds and clearing skies perhaps some patchy fog is
possible. Soundings show dry air in the lower levels so
confidence was not high enough to include this at this time.
Surface high slowly migrates eastward on Sunday. This will
switch winds to the south and bring warming temperatures back
into the 70s for most areas. There isn`t much instability or
lift for Sunday thus a mainly dry forecast is expected. A
northern Rockies low starts to form Sunday night and could bring
a round of severe weather to western and central North Dakota.
If a line of convection can form and hold together perhaps this
impacts portions of eastern North Dakota, particularly the
Devils Lake basing, late Sunday night into Monday morning. SPC
has a Marginal Risk in this area for this threat. Hazards are
tricky to determine given the conditional threat, although a
good start would be 60 to 70 mph winds and hail up to the size
of quarters.

Monday through Monday evening still looks to be more active as
the surface low moves through in conjunction with a potent
upper level wave. MUCAPE and shear look modest, although much of
the instability looks elevated given the lack of surface based
CAPE. So given the possible elevated nature of the storms
perhaps large hail and strong winds will be the main threat. The
hodographs are somewhat veering bringing some increased SRH at
times. This would indicate perhaps a tornado is possible,
although the storms would have to be surface based for this
which is uncertain at this time. Otherwise look for temperatures
to remain in the 70s for Monday with some breezy southerly
winds possible. Heavy rain is also possible with these mentioned
thunderstorms. WPC has much of the area in a marginal to slight
risk for excessive rainfall as a result.

A broad trough pattern could then linger through mid week.
Temperatures look to remain steady in the 70s to perhaps lower
80s. Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are
possible, with perhaps high PoPs on Tuesday. CSU-MLP showing a
small chance of isolated severe storms on Tuesday for Minnesota
and some Red River Valley portions. Wednesday is not showing
much at this time. Perhaps some breezy westerly winds will also
be found through Wednesday, although advisory level winds are
not expected at this time.

Independence Day through the Holiday weekend could start out
active on Thursday as another trough moves through the area.
CSU-MLP showing an isolated severe risk on Thursday.
Deterministic QPF values seem robust, although NBM probs for
over an inch of QPF Thursday through Thursday night are around
10 percent at this time. After this wave moves through there
looks to be mainly northwest flow which brings less of a chance
for showers and thunderstorms and some near normal temperatures.
If a ridge in the west can build more inland as some clusters
suggest then those chances for precip get lower while temps get
slightly warmer. Right now the forecast represents the NBM
although is worth monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all sites. There is
a low chance for patchy ground fog for portions of the region,
especially KGFK and KDVL. Otherwise, look for generally light
winds out of the south to southeast through the period with
little potential for aviation impacts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Lynch