Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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785 FXUS63 KFGF 292025 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a low chance for a strong thunderstorm to move into the Devils Lake basin late Sunday night. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening across much of the forecast area, with a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along and south of Interstate 94. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through mid week. A system may then bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains on Independence Day, with a low chance for severe thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Fair weather cumulus continues to be found across much of the CWA this afternoon along with some breezy northwest winds. Both of these should diminish this evening through tonight as a surface high moves into the area. If clouds fully clear out as expected some cooler overnight lows in the 40s could be found. Temperatures below 40 degrees are generally not expected as even the NBM10th percentile keeps temperatures at or above 40. With light winds and clearing skies perhaps some patchy fog is possible. Soundings show dry air in the lower levels so confidence was not high enough to include this at this time. Surface high slowly migrates eastward on Sunday. This will switch winds to the south and bring warming temperatures back into the 70s for most areas. There isn`t much instability or lift for Sunday thus a mainly dry forecast is expected. A northern Rockies low starts to form Sunday night and could bring a round of severe weather to western and central North Dakota. If a line of convection can form and hold together perhaps this impacts portions of eastern North Dakota, particularly the Devils Lake basing, late Sunday night into Monday morning. SPC has a Marginal Risk in this area for this threat. Hazards are tricky to determine given the conditional threat, although a good start would be 60 to 70 mph winds and hail up to the size of quarters. Monday through Monday evening still looks to be more active as the surface low moves through in conjunction with a potent upper level wave. MUCAPE and shear look modest, although much of the instability looks elevated given the lack of surface based CAPE. So given the possible elevated nature of the storms perhaps large hail and strong winds will be the main threat. The hodographs are somewhat veering bringing some increased SRH at times. This would indicate perhaps a tornado is possible, although the storms would have to be surface based for this which is uncertain at this time. Otherwise look for temperatures to remain in the 70s for Monday with some breezy southerly winds possible. Heavy rain is also possible with these mentioned thunderstorms. WPC has much of the area in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall as a result. A broad trough pattern could then linger through mid week. Temperatures look to remain steady in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s. Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible, with perhaps high PoPs on Tuesday. CSU-MLP showing a small chance of isolated severe storms on Tuesday for Minnesota and some Red River Valley portions. Wednesday is not showing much at this time. Perhaps some breezy westerly winds will also be found through Wednesday, although advisory level winds are not expected at this time. Independence Day through the Holiday weekend could start out active on Thursday as another trough moves through the area. CSU-MLP showing an isolated severe risk on Thursday. Deterministic QPF values seem robust, although NBM probs for over an inch of QPF Thursday through Thursday night are around 10 percent at this time. After this wave moves through there looks to be mainly northwest flow which brings less of a chance for showers and thunderstorms and some near normal temperatures. If a ridge in the west can build more inland as some clusters suggest then those chances for precip get lower while temps get slightly warmer. Right now the forecast represents the NBM although is worth monitoring. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 MVFR to low VFR clouds will remain through this afternoon. Breezy northwest winds may also be found this afternoon. This evening will see clouds lift and diminish in coverage, while winds diminish and eventually go light and variable. Look for mainly clear skies and light winds through Sunday morning. Light winds could become southerly by early Sunday afternoon, with a few VFR cumulus clouds also developing at this same time. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANGLIN AVIATION...ANGLIN