Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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294 FXUS65 KFGZ 250851 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 151 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity will slowly decrease and become more focused over eastern Arizona by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Shower and storm activity has decreased across the area this morning, though some lingering instability combined with leftover boundaries are allowing a few isolated showers and storms to persist. PWATs remain elevated and with lots of clearing occurring overnight, today should see yet another round of showers and storms being widely scattered across northern Arizona. A strong cluster of storms pushed their way north into southern Arizona this morning. This cluster should push additional moisture north, further aiding in development for this afternoon. While precip chances are spread out across most of northern Arizona, CAMs are hitting on lots of activity across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains late this morning/early this afternoon. That activity is then favored to move south off the Rim into the lower elevations, including into Yavapai County. Once again guidance seem too low for parts of Yavapai County, so POPs there were manually adjusted to try and capture what should be widespread activity this afternoon. The remainder of the forecast continues to remain unchanged. Wednesday into Friday shower and storm chances will gradually decrease and shift east as the high that`s allowed ample moisture to move into the area will be displaced east as a trough crosses the northern U.S. Accompanying the drop in rain chances will be an increase in winds for Thursday into the coming weekend out of the southwest. By the weekend, any POPs will mainly be confined to the White Mountains as breezy afternoon conditions persist as a trough moves east. As the trough departs, high pressure will start to build back west. As this occurs, rain chances should start to also build back west...though ensemble guidance doesn`t look as strong with this moisture push like what we have been experiencing recently, so rain chances will be more limited as we go into next week and the monsoon "returns". && .AVIATION...Tuesday 25/06Z through Wednesday 26/06Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds. Expect SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA from 18Z Tue until 03Z Wed, with localized MVFR/IFR conditions. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/06Z through Friday 28/06Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds. SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD +TSRA 19Z-03Z Wed and Thurs will produce localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow. Storm activity shifts primarily east of the I-17 corridor by Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Gusty erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats. West/southwest winds 5- 15 mph along with near-normal temperatures. Minimum afternoon RH 20- 40 percent, with good overnight recoveries. Thursday through Saturday...Scattered showers and storms continue on Thursday, with isolated coverage expected for Friday and Saturday. Southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon, with seasonable temperatures and minimum RH 15-30%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...BAK FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff