028
FXUS65 KFGZ 291931
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1231 PM MST Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and storms are expected today, with
better coverage in southern Navajo and Apache counties. Coverage
will increase and push back westward Sunday into next week as
temperatures remain warm. Drier, hot weather expected by the end
of next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge stretches across the southern tier of
states today from the east coast all the way to Arizona. We are on
the western fringe of the ridge which is continuing to allow for
some southerly flow and moisture advection into the region. For
today, the best moisture is in the eastern 1/3 of the state with
some drying noted toward the west. Isolated showers and storms are
still possible as far west as Prescott this afternoon, with higher
coverage east of a Flagstaff to Payson line. The heavy rain/flooding
threat is also lower today, with just a few spots in eastern AZ
possibly seeing some heavier rain.

Sunday through Monday - southerly flow continues with moisture
expected to increase further with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms at times. Thunderstorm complexes may also
develop over northern Mexico and southern Arizona Sunday
afternoon/evening which could move northward into central and
northern Arizona later Sunday evening into Monday morning. Much of
the guidance now indicates this possibility, and we boosted PoPs
above NBM guidance for this period. Another round of showers and
storms is likely Monday afternoon, though the early morning
activity could keep instability down due to a rain-cooled boundary
layer and clouds limiting daytime heating.

Tuesday through Wednesday - the ridge retreats farther into the
southeast US as another strong ridge over the Pacific shifts
eastward into California. Moisture is forecast to be most
plentiful from the Mogollon Rim southward, with 30-50% chances for
storms each afternoon.

Thursday (4th of July) through Friday - the strong ridge over the
Pacific is forecast to move eastward toward Arizona. This will
result in a warming trend area-wide, and a drying trend at least
from the Mogollon Rim northward. South of the Mogollon Rim,
moisture may linger so that a slight chance of afternoon
convection remains in the forecast for now - that could change
with later guidance. Temperatures are forecast to increase to
several degrees above normal with moderate to high HeatRisk
forecast over the lower elevations of Yavapai Co, Grand Canyon
country, and the Page area.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 29/18Z through Sunday 30/18Z...Outside of
storm activity, mainly VFR conditions. From 19Z-02Z, SCT SHRA/TSRA
mainly SE of a KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line, thunderstorms may produce
brief MVFR conditions. Away from thunderstorms or outflows,
daytime SW winds 10- 20kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 30/18Z through Tuesday 02/18Z...Outside of storm
activity, mainly VFR conditions. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will increase in coverage Sunday afternoon, continuing overnight and
into the day Monday. SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA are
forecast through this period, and thunderstorms may produce brief
MVFR conditions. Storm activity decreases Monday evening through
Tuesday morning. Away from thunderstorms or outflows, daytime S-SW
winds 5-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday...Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through early this evening,
mainly southeast of a Prescott to Flagstaff to Window Rock line.
Storm chances push back north and west Sunday, with a good chance of
rain continuing overnight Sunday into Monday morning and some storm
redevelopment Monday afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds likely near
storms, with daytime southwest wind 10-20 mph outside of storm
activity.

Tuesday through Thursday...Daily chances for shower and thunderstorm
activity continue through Wednesday, with hotter and drier weather
starting Thursday. Winds mainly west to northwest 10-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff