968
FXUS65 KFGZ 270438
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
938 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity decreases
for Friday and Saturday, and then slowly ramps up again from
Sunday into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue across
southern Navajo and Apache counties this evening. This isolated
activity looks to persist overnight with greatest chances across
northeastern Arizona, near the Four Corners, according to the
recent runs of the HRRR, HREF, and SREF. Elsewhere, expect drier
conditions with near average temperatures.

West-southwest winds are still on track to increase across
northern Arizona for Thursday afternoon as a low pressure system
makes its way through the Pacific Northwest. Surface to mid-level
moisture will stick around for the most part, however, greatest
chances for thunderstorms will be for locations north and east of
the Mogollon Rim. Any activity that does develop for Thursday
afternoon should taper later in the evening. Widespread, drier
conditions are forecast for Friday and Saturday as southwesterly
flow persists.

The current forecast remains on track with minor changes needed
at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /419 PM MST/...A much less active day is underway
across northern Arizona in the wake of this morning`s MCV
passage. Ample cloud cover this morning has delayed daytime
heating with convective initiation just beginning. Less available
instability today will limit the coverage of showers and storms,
with the best chances being west of Flagstaff and along the New
Mexico border. That being said, plenty of moisture remains in
place with PWATs (preciptable water) ranging from around 1.00 -
1.50". Any storms that do develop will have the potential of
producing 1-2" rainfall amounts. Localized flash flooding will be
the greatest concern today. Low wind shear should limit any severe
potential, but some hail and gusty winds are possible.

The moisture stays around for one more day on Thursday before a
couple of drier days arrive. On Thursday, a trough of low pressure
moving through the northwestern U.S. will nudge the subtropical
high pressure southward while a drier southwesterly flow begins to
develop. Expect the focus for showers and storms to shift to areas
along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with drier conditions south
and west of Flagstaff. The enhanced southwest flow will increase
wind shear, especially across northeastern Arizona, leading to the
potential for some longer lived and stronger/severe storms there.

Much drier air sweeps over the area Thursday night through Friday.
A dry day area-wide can expected Friday with the only chances for
rain Saturday confined to the White Mountains. The dry days will
be short-lived as subtropical high pressure building north and
west again beginning Sunday will again usher in additional
moisture from the south. Expect precipitation chances to increase
and spread north through early next week.

With more sunshine over the weekend, and high pressure building
back into the state next week, temperatures will be on an
increasing trend reaching a few degrees above normal.

The monsoonal pattern looks to continue through much of next week,
though confidence decreases in the moisture by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 27/06Z through Friday 28/06Z...Expect
another round of scattered thunderstorms along and north of a
KIGM-KPRC-KSOW line Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions
away from storms. Light winds overnight will become southwest at
10-20 kts on Thursday, but could gust up to 40 kts in the vicinity
of thunderstorms. Diminishing winds Thursday evening.

OUTLOOK...Friday 28/06Z through Sunday 30/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast with a near shutdown of storm activity on Friday and
Saturday. look for afternoon southwest winds at 10-20 kts each
day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue through Thursday. Stronger storms will bring
heavy rainfall, hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. On
Thursday, the emphasis shifts primarily to the Mogollon Rim north
and east. Look for mostly dry weather to move in on Friday. Southwest
winds increase Thursday and Friday to 10-15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph.

Saturday through Monday...Mostly dry weather on Saturday with the
only storm chances confined to the White Mountains. Expect moisture
and storm chances to gradually increase from Sunday onward.
Temperatures will warm above average with daytime southwest winds of
10-20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/MCT
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff