496
FXUS65 KFGZ 291633
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
933 AM MST Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and storms are expected today, with
better coverage in southern Navajo and Apache counties. Coverage
will increase and push back westward Sunday into next week as
temperatures remain warm. Drier, hot weather expected by the end
of next work week.

&&

.UPDATE...Forecast still on track with discussion below from the
overnight shift - in bringing PoPs back westward and not drying
out as much as we thought yesterday. Made another minor adjustment
to PoPs in the Prescott to Williams area to increase them to
around 20% to get them mentioned in the forecasts. Otherwise,
extensive cloud cover in southern Navajo and Apache counties (and
likely some sprinkles) will hinder daytime heating for the next
couple hours at least. This is where our highest PoPs are later
this afternoon, this still looks OK but it may be after 2-3 PM
before we get better storm coverage in those areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /432 AM MST/...Overall trended back up some with POPs
for today. Watching convective activity that took place in southern
Arizona/south of the border, taking into account the activity
from Friday, observing dewpoints increasing in southern Arizona,
and the upward trend in CAMs, it was concluded that coverage will
not be confined in far eastern AZ as previously thought. CAMs have
isolated activity as far west as Flagstaff this afternoon. Thus
POPs were manually manipulated to try and bring them back further
west. Coverage is still going to be pretty isolated besides in far
eastern Arizona and over the Whites though. Just a few lucky
individuals further west will get in on measurable
rainfall...though ample instability with some lingering shear with
a trough still passing through will bring a slightly elevated
severe threat, including hail and strong down burst/outflow winds.

After today, the forecast remains mostly unchanged: the departing
trough and westward pushing high will allow for monsoonal moisture
to start ramping back up over the region, pushing scattered shower
and storm chances to move back west Sunday into the start of next
work week. This will persist through at least the middle of the
coming work week.

By Thursday (4th of July), a strong high is still expected to
slide east over the west coast and setting up shop over the Great
Basin. This will set up a drier period with temperatures
increasing. Ensemble guidance continues to keep moisture pooled
south of the Rim under northerly flow, so rain chances are not
totally gone for the entire region at the moment...will have to
continue to track. As of now, the heat looks to be the biggest
risk that will need to be monitored, especially with the 4th of
July holiday coinciding and the weekend after. Overnight
recoveries especially for the lower elevations will be most
noteworthy as the lingering moisture would result in trapped heat
persisting overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 29/12Z through Sunday 30/12Z...Outside of
storm activity, mainly VFR conditions. From 19Z-02Z, SCT SHRA/TSRA
mainly SE of a KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line, thunderstorms may produce brief
MVFR conditions. AWay from thunderstorms or outflows, daytime SW
winds 10-20kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 30/12Z through Tuesday 02/12Z...Outside of storm
activity, mainly VFR conditions. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will increase in frequency and coverage. From 19Z-02Z each day, SCT
to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA, thunderstorms may produce brief
MVFR conditions. AWay from thunderstorms or outflows, daytime S-SW
winds 5-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Moisture has retreated
southeastward over the last 24-48 hours, but it has not completely
dried out. Expected isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
today, mainly southeast of a Prescott to Flagstaff to Window Rock
line. Shower and thunderstorm activity starts pushing back north and
west Sunday. The northern zones, especially northwestern, will
remain the driest. Away from thunderstorms, expect daytime southwest
winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum RH values stay above 15 percent through
the period.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for shower and thunderstorm
activity continue. Generally light winds, away from thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/RKR
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff