Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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987 FXUS65 KFGZ 290340 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 840 PM MST Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A lull in shower and thunderstorm development will arrive today and Saturday, before moisture returns and brings an active pattern back to the area by early next week. && .UPDATE...Showers continue to diminish across Navajo and Apache counties this evening. Even less coverage is expected on Saturday...limited to areas south and east of Happy Jack. Current forecast covers this well. && .PREV DISCUSSION /441 PM MST/...A drier southwest flow will be over northern Arizona the next couple of days, thanks to persistent troughing across the northwestern U.S. The FGZ sounding this morning showed a decrease in precipitable water with drying in the mid and upper levels. This will lead to a downturn in daytime convection today and Saturday. However, there is still enough low level moisture to fuel isolated storms as far west as Flagstaff today, and mostly near the White Mountains on Saturday. Expect enhanced afternoon breezes today with gusts up to 25 mph. With less convective activity and more sunshine, expect daytime temperatures to increase through the weekend, reaching a few degrees above late June normals. Subtropical high pressure over the southern plains will gradually build west later this weekend, leading to a transition back to south/southeasterly flow. This in conjunction with active monsoonal activity forecast in northern Mexico will bring monsoon moisture back to the area. By Sunday, rain and thunderstorm chances return to all of northern Arizona. A moderate monsoon pattern with daily thunderstorm chances will continue through the middle of next week. By late next week, operational and ensemble runs of the GFS and EC continue to forecast a strong high pressure circulation setting up over the west coast and migrating into the Great Basin. This is a day and hot pattern for much of northern Arizona. Expect a decreasing trend in preciptation chances Thursday onward. The caveat is the moisture pool south of the Mogollon Rim. The drier northerly flow that develops may not be strong enough to push across the Rim. This means the valleys below the Rim could see thunderstorms chances continue while the remainder of the area dries out. Heat will become more of a concern under this pattern, and our temperatures and Heat Risk guidance show us nearing thresholds by Thursday/Friday of next week. && .AVIATION...Saturday 29/00Z through Sunday 30/00Z...Isolated SHRA/TSRA this evening from around KSEZ to KPGA and eastward. Brief reductions down to MVFR possible in any stronger storm, along with outflow wind gusts up to 35 kts. Outside of storms, SW to W winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. OUTLOOK...Sunday 30/00Z through Tuesday 02/00Z...SHRA/TSRA confined to the White Mountains Saturday, with moisture and storm chances increasing and spreading north Sunday and Monday. SW winds through the weekend 10-20 kts or less, becoming light during the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...Notably drier weather is expected through Saturday, though isolated thunderstorms are still possible. The lowest RH is expected Saturday when it drops to between 15-30%. Southwest to west winds 10-15 mph with afternoon gusts up to 25 mph. Stronger outflow winds possible near any storms. Monday through Wednesday...Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin to increase again from Sunday through the middle of next week. Southwest to west winds 10-20 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MAS/MCT AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff