940
FXUS64 KFWD 011918
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
218 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/
/Through Tuesday/

East Texas will remain largely uncapped this afternoon, 70F+ dew
points at peak heating assuring MLCAPE values approaching or
exceeding 2000 J/kg. The richest corridor of moisture is mainly
east of our area where dew point values are still >75F at this
hour. Convective attempts will be possible this afternoon along
the western periphery of this moisture axis, which will be within
our CWA, but the majority of the afternoon activity will remain
east of our easternmost counties.

The mid-level ridge responsible for our current bout of heat
continues its transit from west to east through the southern tier
of states. During this process, 500mb heights have been at their
maximum (>19,000ft AGL) yesterday and today (Sunday and Monday).
Despite a steady decline in heights thereafter, the cumulative
effect of the heat will mean that Tuesday will actually be the
hottest day of the bunch. Deeper mixing will allow dew points to
fall below 70F along and west of the I-35 corridor both today and
tomorrow (Monday and Tuesday), minimum afternoon values a couple
of degrees lower regionwide on Tuesday. But this reduced humidity
will be offset by the increase in temperature, resulting in
similar afternoon heat index values. Thus, the Heat Advisory has
been extended for another day. There`s the potential for Excessive
Heat Warning criteria to be met in portions of East Texas Tuesday
afternoon, and the need for an upgrade will be assessed with
subsequent forecast packages.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a stout
upper ridge through the middle portions of this week keeping
mostly sunny, hot, and dry weather through the 4th of July
holiday. Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s to lower 100s both
Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values peaking in the
103-108 degree range. Most of our area will likely need extensions
to current heat headlines. Therefore, continue to take the
necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses, especially
if you plan on being outside for extended periods time on the 4th.
Drink plenty of water, take a dip in the pool or a break in the
A/C, and wear light-colored clothing!

A notable change in the weather pattern is expected to take place
in the late Thursday-Friday time frame. Troughing over the
Central Plains will help send a weak cold front toward North Texas
Thursday night into Friday morning. This slow, southward-moving frontal
boundary will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development through the latter half of Saturday. Most
likely rain amounts look to remain generally in the 0.2-0.5"
range with isolated totals upward of an inch. This frontal
boundary and increase in cloudiness will also bring about a mid-
summer "cooldown" for at least the first half of the weekend.
Afternoon temperatures will drop down into the low to mid-90s
(possibly even upper 80s) for much of the region Friday and
Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, the continuing weather pattern is a bit of a
toss-up. Just over half of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble members keep
an active weather pattern over the Central US with strong ridging
placed over the Western CONUS. The other half attempts to build a
ridge back over the state of Texas, keeping rain chances on the
lower end. We will also be monitoring Hurricane Beryl as it
crosses the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. The vast majority of
guidance currently keeps a Gulf of Mexico landfall down in Mexico
with impacts to North and Central Texas unlikely. Continue to
monitor for updates over the next several days now that we have
weather other than just hot and dry in the forecast!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR with south flow. Thunder potential confined to East Texas.

A persistence forecast continues with daytime cumulus and passing
cirrus. The diurnal variation in wind direction will introduce an
easterly component during the afternoon/evening, but with speeds
primarily under 10kts, a one-line TAF should suffice.

Afternoon thunderstorms will be well east of the D10 but may
impact eastern departures and arrivals through the Cedar Creek
Cornerpost. These diurnally driven convective elements will
dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 102  82 100  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                79 101  79  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  99  79  98  79 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              79 103  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            80 101  81 100  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              81 102  82 100  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             79 100  79  98  78 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           80 102  80 100  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
Temple              77 101  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       78 103  78 101  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$