928
FXUS64 KFWD 221728
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Rest of the Afternoon through Sunday/

The upper level ridge will continue building west, becoming
centered over North & Central TX this weekend and promoting hot
and rain-free conditions. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees
warmer than yesterday, climbing into the mid 90s areawide with
scattered daytime cumulus and plenty of sunshine. Overnight lows
in the mid/upper 70s are expected again tonight. Unsurprisingly,
the warming trend will continue Sunday with highs topping out in
the mid 90s for Central TX and upper 90s for North Texas. Although
a few locations are expected to break the century mark tomorrow,
the first "official" 100 degree days of the season will likely
have to wait, with a forecast of 99 and 96 for DFW and Waco
respectively.

Otherwise, south winds 5-10 mph are expected with ample moisture
resulting in heat index values a few degrees higher than the
actual temperature.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

The main story heading into the upcoming workweek will be the
onset of oppressive summer heat. The upper ridge axis will become
centered directly overhead by the end of this weekend, and daily
high temperatures will steadily trend warmer into the upper 90s
while triple-digit readings begin to become more common. Mixing
out of dewpoints into the 60s early in the week will hold heat
index values largely in the 100-108 degree range, but higher
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s arriving towards the midweek
period could push heat index values over 110 at times. Prolonged
heat headlines appear likely through the extended forecast
period.

The ridge will become anchored across the Desert Southwest by
Wednesday, placing much of the Southern and Central Plains within
northerly flow aloft. This pattern can allow weak fronts to push
farther southward than normal by summertime standards, and
resultant convection can sometimes become a factor for North Texas
as steering flow sends convection from these boundaries southward
through the Plains. As a result, at least some low thunderstorm
chances may exist on Wednesday or Thursday. Unless next week`s
heat wave is interrupted by such convection or at least some
remnant cloud cover, oppressive heat and humidity will likely
continue into the late week period.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

No aviation concerns with VFR continuing through the period.
Expect scattered daytime cumulus and south winds near 10 kts.

Gordon

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  79  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  75  96  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               93  75  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              96  75 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            96  76  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              96  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             94  75  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           95  76  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  72  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       95  74  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$