Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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056 FXUS63 KGID 272342 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to cross parts of the local area this evening and through the overnight hours. Hail to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to near 60 mph are both possible. - Temperatures will rebound to near climo on Friday, with high temperatures expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. - Pleasant temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s, along with mainly night-time thunderstorm chances each day. - Warmer with continued storm chances next week, with highs in the 80s and 90s and mainly small chances for thunderstorms (20-40%) each day. Heat Index values could climb near or over 100 in spots both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A few breaks in the could cover can be seen making their way across the local area this afternoon. This clearing should allow for additional instability to build across the area, with models indicating 2-3K J/KG of CAPE will be present by late afternoon. As some isolated convection develops to our west and encounters this unstable airmass, could see a line of strong to severe storms develop and propagate across the local area. Already seeing some CU/TSRA development near the panhandle on Satellite, which is in line with where storms are expected to develop in model data. If the last couple runs of the HRRR are correct, should see some storms reach western Dawson county around 00Z...tracking eastward roughly along the I-80 corridor. If this does come to fruition, given the instability (2-3K J/KG), elevated nature of the storms (5Kft cloud bases) and modest deep layer shear (0-6KM around 45 KTS), some of these storms could become severe, with large hail (1.25"+) and damaging wind gusts (60mph+) being the main threats, with the strength of storms expected to diminish during the late evening hours. Dry weather is then expected for the daytime hours on Friday behind this evenings disturbance, with warming temperatures (in part due to increased sunshine) expected across the area. A cold front will cross the area during the daytime hours Friday, but this should be more of a wind shift, with the "cooler" air holding off until the weekend. For the late afternoon and evening hours, models are keying in on another upper level disturbance moving off the high plains, which will bring another chance for some severe storms to the local area. Timing will likely be similar to this afternoons activity, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main concerns. There will be an outside chance for a Tornado as well tomorrow afternoon (2%) as LCL heights will be a bit lower, but given that the low level shear is weak, did not include a mention of a possible tornado in the HWO. For the weekend, expect pleasant temperatures each day, with Highs only climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. There will also be small chances for thunderstorms, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, but these chances will be minimal and most areas seeing little to no precipitation. With the upper level ridge returning to the local area late Sunday and amplifying on Monday, expect temperatures to soar back above normal to start next week, and with dewpoints expected to be in the lower 70s, Heat Index values could reach the 100 to 105 degree range across parts of the area - especially across portions of north central Kansas. This ridge will shift east into the Great Lakes Region by Tuesday afternoon, with additional disturbances in the upper level flow expected to bring off and on small chances of thunderstorms to the local area through the end of the week. While there are chances for precip across at least parts of the local area in each six hour forecast block next week, when all is said and done, there will be plenty of dry periods and some areas will likely not see much in the way of beneficial precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Gusty southeast to south winds will decrease a little and turn towards the southwest by 12z. Winds will then turn towards the northwest to north by 18z. Wind shear is expected at both terminals beginning around 03z and continuing until around 06z/07z. Low ceilings are likely beginning around 10z and possibly continuing until around 17z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Schuldt