716
FXUS63 KGLD 290909
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
309 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front passage today leads to cooler temperatures.

- Cold front early Sunday morning retreats as a warm front with
  showers and storms; heavy to torrential rain possible.

- Daily chances for storms continues Sunday through the next
  week.

- Triple digit temperatures Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Convection ongoing mainly south of I-70 is being aided by the LLJ
does look to continue through around sunrise. No hazards are
currently anticipated other than heavy rainfall and some gusty
winds around 40 mph. Storms have been precipitation loaded,
causing some locales to see torrential rainfall with KDP values
in excess of 10. Currently watching a front move into the area
from the north and will move south through the morning hours.
RAP has been consistently showing a transient period of fog,
locally dense is possible followed by stratus behind the front
so have added in a quick moving area of fog that is currently
forecast to be out of the area (Greeley, Wichita counties) by
late morning. Cooler temperatures in the 80s are currently
forecasted across the entire area today. RAP has been showing
some 700-500 mb moisture moving into SE portions of the area
which may support some quick pop up showers this afternoon which
given the lack of any forcing will be quick in duration and not
amount to more than a hundredth or two of precipitation at
best. Due to spotty nature of this signal thus far have silent
pops in the forecast.

Tonight, the cold front looks to retreat back north as a warm front.
Some subtle 700mb forcing along the leading edge of the front
looks to develop scattered to numerous storms along the front.
Increasing lapse rates as well overnight may support some hail
threat with the strongest storms but due to the overall lack of
CAPE and meager shear think nickel sized hail would be the max
hail size. Very heavy to torrential rain looks to occur as well
as winds will become southeasterly allowing a strong amount of
moisture return to move into the area.

Sunday morning, the atmosphere stabilizes in a widespread area of
stratus and perhaps some localized fog. Currently leading towards
stratus as winds will be above 10 mph. Soundings look to be very
saturated throughout the profile with the exception of some drier
air around the 700 mb level which looks to create light rain or just
drizzle throughout the majority of the day for those east of Highway
27 and south of I70. RAP surface and 850mb RH values look to remain
nearly saturated throughout the duration of the day which
should help keep the stratus thick and temperatures cool as a
result. Have begun the trend of lowering temperatures across
the east down into the mid to upper 70s. There may be some
breaks in the clouds during the late afternoon/early evening
hours which would let the temperature rise some. If these breaks
don`t happen then highs may need to be lowered even more,
interestingly enough the NAM is still keeping highs across the
east only in the mid 60s. Some record coldest high temperatures
may be in jeopardy if the stratus does indeed hold thick.

There does continue to be some variations of where the western
periphery of the stratus deck will lie; those that are not in
stratus will continue to see the strong moisture advection move
into the area as a surface high across the southern Plain/SW
Kansas begins to redevelop. A developing trough across the
Inter-Mountain west will lead to a tight gradient developing
which may end up being the stratus line. A 700 mb shortwave off
of the Rockies looks to develop showers and storms off of the
Front Range and looks to move towards the Colorado Plains. Wind
shear will be supportive of some organization of storms
especially the further west towards the Front Range you go,
however there may be a narrow plume of better instabilty across
eastern Colorado where storms may become more intense as they
ride around the surface high. So the main question for coverage
will be how amplified will the surface high be. A more amplified
high would lead to more subsidence leading to less storms, less
amplified would lead to more storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Both the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to upper
level ridging at 500mb stretched across the southern portion of
the country, amplifying some by the end of next week. This will
allow for W/NW flow aloft giving way to SW flow aloft late in
the period. The passage of several shortwaves along the northern
periphery of the ridge will interact with a surface low and
associated front that will meander through the CWA and
eventually settling south of the CWA. Both sets of guidance are
showing a bit different set of areal coverage for rw/trw, but
the overall consensus will be the chance(20- 40%) for late
afternoon precipitation, as the evening hours will promote
higher chances(40-60%) for storms.

As with the past several days, the above normal temps as fueled
dry conditions during the daytime hours, allowing for
sunset/evening convection chances. Can`t rule out some strong to
severe cells to impacts areas, along with some localized heavy
rainfall with PW values 1-1.5" early in the week, with a 1-1.2"
range for the latter portion.

For temps, highs on Monday will range in the upper 90s over
northeast Colorado into the low 100s for locales east of the
Colorado border. For next Tuesday onward, mainly 90s expected
each day, with areas along/west of Highway 27 seeing some mid
and upper 80s mix in, especially for northeast Colorado.

With Monday having much of the region seeing at least 100
degrees, some high heat indices are possible. With the area
being dry for most of the daytime hours, low RH will be present.
Areas along/east of Highway 83, especially Graham and Norton
counties could have enough moisture present to give some
readings in the 100-103 range. West of this, readings will be
at/below forecasted highs. Conditions will be monitored for a
potential Heat Advisory issuance if warranted.

Overnight lows will mainly range in the 60s for most of the
periods, but Monday night could have 70s present for areas
along/east of Highway 83.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Aside from a potential for sub-VFR conditions associated with
thunderstorms at both terminals late this evening into tonight
(~06-09Z).. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the
TAF period. Aside from gusty/erratic winds invof any
thunderstorms.. winds will remain light/variable this evening
and overnight. Around or shortly after sunrise, winds are
expected to abruptly shift to the N-NNE and increase to 15-25
knots (GLD) or ~12-18 knots (MCK). Northerly winds will veer
toward the northeast and decrease to 7-12 knots by early
afternoon.. remaining light and further veering to the east by
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BV