034
FXUS63 KGLD 070926
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
326 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are forecast through the early evening today. A storm
  or two may become severe with large hail or a severe wind
  gust.

- A gradually warming, but overall tranquil, pattern is expected
  to move into the region starting early in the workweek. Well
  above average temperatures are forecast towards the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Current observations show storms and showers generally moving east
along and east of Highway 83. Storms have been forming in an area of
moisture advection ahead of an upper shortwave that is pushing
through the area. Current expectation is for storms to continue to
form through the early morning and morning hours, though coverage is
in question and might be more isolated than some guidance is
suggesting (scattered clusters across most of NW KS/SW NE). Severe
weather chances remain very low with storms having generally been
efficient rain makers instead of hail makers. This pattern is likely
to continue so only an isolated chance for severe hail is expected
through the morning. Severe wind gusts are unlikely with weak
microburst parameters and overall flow generally below 45 kts.

Storm coverage is forecast to begin decreasing through the afternoon
as the little shortwave moves off and to the east. With some breaks
in the clouds, temperatures should be able to warm towards 80,
though most of the area should stay in the 70`s (especially for
those who remain under cloud cover). Lower level moisture is also
forecast to begin decreasing with winds shifting to out of the
north. Even with the decrease in low level moisture, another round
of storms is possible off the Palmer Divide in Eastern Colorado as
the main trough axis begins to swing through. Forecast parameters
ahead of this line remain fairly marginal with around 1000-1500 J/KG
of CAPE and DCAPE below 1000 J/KG. However, with effective shear
around 40-45 kts and downshear vectors nearing 50 kts, an instance or
two of marginally severe wind gusts or hail seems possible with this
batch. These storms are currently favored from Wray to Leoti and
areas west.

For tonight, storms are forecast to end through the early night as
the trough axis swings east of the area and drier air moves in with
northerly flow. Skies would then slowly clear and allow lows to drop
into the 50`s and 60`s near sunrise.

Tomorrow, is forecast to be a fairly mild day as the area transition
to the backside of the upper trough with broad high pressure across
the area. With this, mostly sunny skies are forecast with highs
warming into the low 80`s. Winds are forecast to be fairly light
from the north. There may be a stray shower/storm in Eastern
Colorado that develops off the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For the long term period, the period is forecast to be largely
dictated by upper ridging, leading to above average temperatures and
relatively drier conditions.

For Tuesday through Thursday, the area is forecast to remain roughly
between an upper ridge over the west and the upper trough over the
east. This would keep the area in northwest flow aloft and allow a
few shortwaves to move over the area. However, with relatively dry
air forecast, skies should generally be clear short of a few chance
for evening storms from Eastern Colorado. Highs are forecast to
generally be in the low to mid 90`s.

Friday on is forecast to see the upper ridge move over the Central
CONUS and be the primary driver of weather conditions. Well above
average temperatures approaching 100 are forecast and relatively dry
conditions are forecast to remain. There may still be a few
showers/storms try and develop off the higher terrain in Eastern
colorado, but the forecast lack of synoptic forcing and moisture
should keep them limited.

Will have to watch for critical fire conditions through the long
term period as RH is forecast to drop into the teens. However, the
weak pressure gradient that is forecast should keep winds generally
below critical thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Confidence
continues to increase for strong to severe thunderstorm to occur
tonight through Sunday morning. The coverage of these storms is
still not clear. The best chance seems to be close to 12z
through 16z or so. The MVFR ceiling will mainly impact KGLD. As
the lower ceilings move in, so will the storm potential. Winds
will be rather erratic given the storm activity. Storm activity
will end from west to east beginning around 18z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JTL