275
FXUS62 KGSP 030533
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
133 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As dry and cooler high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight and
Wednesday, the heat wave will again become established for the
second half of the week.  Hot and humid conditions are expected over
the weekend with Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms from
Thursday through Sunday, especially over the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 124 AM EDT Wednesday: Another quiet night, with only some
thin cirrus streaming down from the north and a few patches of
high-based stratocu. No changes necessary.

Otherwise, dry sfc high will move off the coast through daybreak,
allowing low- level flow to reorient to SE. This may allow some low
clouds to possibly develop mainly west of I-26 toward dawn. No fog
is expected though. Near-normal temperatures and more seasonable
humidity look to return Wednesday; vertical profiles are still
subsident but more cumulus can be expected, and a few showers
can`t be ruled out over the southwest NC ridges. This warrants a
small area of 20%-ish PoPs there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday: The mid to upper level ridging across the
southeastern states will weaken over the short range period. This
will unfortunately re-orient the surface high pressure pattern,
which will shift the pleasant northeasterly flow of today around to
the southwest by Independence Day Thursday. This change in flow will
bring the higher heat and humidity back to the area. Temperatures
will be warming each day with readings in the Piedmont reaching the
mid 90s Thursday and mid to upper 90s Friday. With dewpoints climbing
back into the lower 70s in the Piedmont, heat index readings will
approach 105 on Friday afternoon and thus a Heat Advisory may be
needed particularly for the lower Piedmont and Charlotte areas.

Heat and humidity will return to the mountains also. However, this
should lead to early development of convection each day keeping
temperatures in check.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday: A system in the Ohio Valley will push a
weak cold front toward the area and bring a more active convective
pattern with it on Saturday. Storms should develop in the mountains
and push into the Piedmont in the afternoon. However, conditions
will be hot and humid prior to any storm develop with heat index
values again around 105 degrees in the lower Piedmont and Charlotte
areas.

With more moisture in the area due to the front lingering across the
area, expect temperatures to be slightly less hot and there to be an
active convective pattern Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals thru the period. Calm
or light/variable wind through mid-morning, with only a few high
clouds expected. Once we mix a bit, the wind is expected to come
up from the SE to S based on the location of the sfc high moving
off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Moisture will be a bit more available
today, so a few stratocu should be expected. As we lose daytime
heating, the clouds should dissipate and wind should go light S
or perhaps variable/calm once again.

Outlook: A return of more typical mid-summer humidity and diurnal
convection returns Thursday into the weekend leading to possible
restrictions each afternoon/early evening. Fog and/or low stratus
may develop each morning, especially for areas that received rain
the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...PM