226
FXUS64 KHGX 270459
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A bit more unsettled weather pattern to end the work week, with
subtle shortwave trough and associated slow MCS over northeast TX
and northwest LA this afternoon which models are pretty
consistent with dissipating this evening. However, HRRR and GFS
both support some new development along residual outflow overnight
near east- central TX which would have a south-southwest
propagation component into some of our eastern counties Thursday
morning. While this will dissipate through the day tomorrow,
there should be some persistent mid/high clouds in its wake. So
while the afternoon will once again be another hot one for late
June, not as confident on max heat indicies above 108f with these
lingering MCS affects. Will opt to hold off on a heat advisory for
now, however with late day sun we could still get advisory levels
once again for a few hours later in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The primary concern in the extended period continues to surround the
potential for excessive heat, while we also continue to monitor for
the possibility of scattered thunderstorms to develop over the
course of the weekend and into the early part of next week. The
contributing synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged, with a
dominant midlevel ridge building to approximately 597-98 dam by the
end of the weekend. With 850mb temps warming to around 22 degC per
the most recent deterministic model runs, high temperatures will
approach the upper 90s for most of the area and even perhaps will
break into the triple digits for a few locations through Tuesday.
With dew points remaining situated in the mid to upper 70s, maximum
apparent temperatures look to approach 110 each day for much of the
area. This, combined with max WBGT values of 90-91 degF, will likely
require the issuance of additional heat advisories throughout much
of the period. With an array of outdoor events underway over the
course of the weekend, heat safety precautions will be paramount.
Taking preventative measures like staying hydrated and avoiding
strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day could very
well be the difference between a pleasant weekend and a heat-related
illness.

While heat stands out as the primary forecast concern, things may
become slightly complicated by the potential for daily isolated
thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the aforementioned ridge, our
positioning on its eastern peripheral will allow a few weak pockets
of shortwave energy to traverse the ridge, supplying enough PVA to
provide an impetus for afternoon convection. This, combined with
robust heating and the daily propagation of the sea/bay breeze, will
keep ~20-30% PoPs in the forecast with the greatest rainfall
potential coming on Sunday and Monday.

Another quick thing to note is the continued elevated low
temperatures (high 70s to low 80s) each night across the area; these
elevated lows can inhibit recovery from daytime heat stress and thus
pose a greater risk for heat-related illnesses in subsequent hot
days. As such, considering heat safety precautions will remain
key.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Generally low end VFR, with occasional MVFR in some spots, is
expected overnight and into the morning. We will need to watch
small disturbances approaching from the north that could try to
spark some shra/tsra activity. The threat appears to be low for
now. However, we did add VCSH to the TAF at GLS for 12 to 15 UTC.
We have not made any changes to the forecast for tomorrow, with
southwest winds becoming south to southeast by afternoon. Some of
the latest hi-res guidance suggest scattered shra/tsra activity
that could impact some of our terminals. We have opted to leave
out any TS/SH mention in the TAFs while we wait for more overnight
data.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Generally benign marine conditions are expected for the foreseeable
future as light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will
be a chance for thunderstorms each day, but storm coverage should
generally remain isolated. Conditions are likely to remain below
advisory thresholds for the full period, aside from any brief strong
wind gusts associated with developing storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  77  97  76 /  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  97  79  97  78 /  30  20  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  91  82 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Evans
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cady