056
FXUS64 KHGX 230452
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

An upper level ridge will build into the South Central CONUS as we
close out the weekend, bringing about a generally benign pattern
to the region characterized by hot and humid weather with daily
chances of diurnally driven sowers and thunderstorms. Elevated
east winds will continue to shift to the southeast overnight and
into tomorrow as the tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf
pushes towards the Eastern Mexican coastline. As such, warm but
otherwise generally seasonable conditions will develop tomorrow,
with highs in the mid 90s for most of the area (near 90 along the
coast) and overnight lows in the upper 70s (near 80 along the
coast).

Increasing temperatures tomorrow will produce heat index values in
the 105-107 range during the afternoon across most of the area.
Given this, we will need to monitor for the potential for a Heat
Advisory, though at this time it appears unlikely. Regardless,
with outdoor weekend activities ongoing tomorrow, it will be
important to prepare for hot conditions by staying hydrated,
wearing sunscreen, and wearing light colored/loose fitting
clothing if planning to head outdoors.

Adams/Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Upper ridging will continue to dominate the extended period, with
a rather uneventful week expected across the area aside from some
daily isolated thunderstorm chances. The presence of a subsidence
inversion along with a lack of synoptic forcing will generally
suppress widespread rainfall potential over the duration of the
week. However, given the hot and relatively humid conditions in
place this afternoon, a few thunderstorms could presumably be
triggered during the afternoon each day by diurnally driven
features like the sea breeze. As such, PoP values of approximately
20% can be expected for much of the Greater Houston area this week
with slightly higher potential along the immediate coast.

Highs each day will generally approach the mid to upper 90s inland
and the lower 90s along the immediate coast, while steady WAA will
provide elevated lows in the upper 70s/near 80 each night.
Afternoon heat index values will begin to approach the 110 mark in
some locations by Monday, and as a result we will need to consider
possible Heat Advisories during the course of the week. Heat
safety precautions will continue to remain a priority regardless
of whether an advisory is issued or not.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR, virtually SKC, with ESE to SE winds. Winds light early,
becoming 5-10 kts afternoon, then light again after sunset.
Potential for patchy fog pre-dawn, and an isolated shower/storm
afternoon...however, probability of either is too low at any TAF
sites to merit a mention explicitly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds will generally prevail throughout
the course of the upcoming week, with wave heights diminishing
heading into tomorrow as the tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf
approaches the coast. In general, conditions should remain below
caution thresholds. Isolated showers and storms may develop during
the afternoon hours each day, but coverage should not be
extensive.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  96  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  75  95  76  95 /   0  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  78  89  82  91 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cady