Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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919 FXUS64 KHUN 212341 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 641 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A shower has developed in southwestern Dekalb county over the past hour. Some additional isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a weak convergence boundary that extends from southeast Kentucky southwest into central/southwestern Tennessee as well. A few mesoscale models show some isolated activity possibly continuing in NE Alabama or moving into southern middle Tennessee early this evening as that boundary slides slightly southeast before this activity dissipates. Therefore, a very isolated probability of a few showers or storms was added to the forecast through that time. Not expecting anything very strong, but brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning could occur with a storm or two. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The aforementioned upper ridge will generally progress east over the northern Gulf coast through early next week. However, a few subtle shortwaves may bring low chances (10-20%) of showers and a storm or two to areas north of the Tennessee River both Sunday and Monday afternoons. A more significant upper shortwave trough as well as an approaching surface cold front is expected to increase rain chances by Tuesday afternoon (low to medium; 15-40%). No severe weather is forecast at this time. This pattern shift may also cause a decrease in high temperatures, with highs beginning in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and topping out in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon. Lows will continue to be a bit warm, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, due to elevated moisture through Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The front will settle more into the region by the middle of next week and potentially stall invof the mid TN Valley heading into the end of the work week. The upper trough pattern will also translate thru the Midwest/OH Valley regions past mid week, maintaining a low chc of showers/tstms in the forecast thru the end of the forecast period. The lack of a stronger return flow pattern/associated influx of moisture will offset the prob for higher rain chances next week, although this could easily change pending future model runs. Slightly cooler air will at least filter into the area Wed thru Fri with the passage of the front, with afternoon highs trending more in the lower/mid 80s. This slightly cooler air will also result in lows predom in the lower/mid 60s thru the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Light winds and clear skies should provide VFR conditions at both terminals through much of the period. Included patchy fog at KHSV, that could briefly reduce VSBYS to around 5 SM around daybreak. For now, leaving this out of KMSL terminal, but it may need to be added in next issuance. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...KTW