098
FXUS64 KHUN 292336
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
636 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Diurnal showers and storms are expected to continue through the
afternoon into the evening. Best chances for additional rain will
be east of I-65 on the western periphery of high pressure. Mid
level dry air will greatly limit storms from becoming strong to
severe with frequent lightning likely prevailing as the biggest
threat through the afternoon.

Despite the cloud cover, current heat index values are near or
just over 100 degrees. Temps will likely rise a few more degrees
in locations with clear skies. A heat advisory remains in effect
through 8 PM. Those partaking in outdoor activities will need to
take proper heat safety precautions. Both storm and heat risk will
subside as the sun sets giving way to a mostly clear night. With
such moist low levels, fog will be possible tonight with best
chances in low lying areas and along waterways.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Diurnal showers and storms will likely fire up again after
sunrise on Sunday. Morning showers will likely be very scattered
in nature with low rain chances included (20-30%) to reflect this.
With partly cloudy skies and dew points remaining in the mid to
upper 70s, heat index values will meet criteria for an additional
Heat Advisory. Sunday`s Heat Advisory will be in effect for the
whole area through 7 PM.

Ahead of an approaching cold front, PoP`s increase to 60-70% by
noon on Sunday and remain elevated until after sunset. Severe
indices for tomorrow afternoon look pretty poor favoring more
general thunderstorms with some potentially becoming strong.
Storms should wane as the sun sets with skies clearing as the
front moves through. In the wake of the frontal passage, a much
drier and cooler air mass will filter in from the north giving us
some brief relief from the heat. Dewpoints will fall to the 50s
with high temps in the low 90s on Monday. This will be short lived
however as mid 90 temps and 70+ dewpoints build back in by
Tuesday thanks to the return of high pressure and southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The heat and humidity will return mid to late week, including the
4th of July holiday as a strong mid/upper ridge will build into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, extending southward into the
Tennessee Valley. This will keep stalled boundaries (and their
focus for convection) well south along the Gulf Coast and allow a
hot/humid air mass to settle into the region. This will push
daytime highs into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values
easily into the 100-105 degree range by Tuesday and potentially
above 105 degrees (Advisory criteria) for Wednesday and Thursday
(4th of July). Additional heat products may be needed later next
week. Low/medium chances (20-40%) for diurnally driven convection
will be present each day, but most locations will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Predominant VFR conditions likely for KHSV and KMSL terminals
through ~16Z. A cold front moving southward into the area will
begin to help generate SHRA/TSRA activity in the area afterward.
PROB30 groups were used to address uncertainty in coverage of
TSRA in the latest TAFs. Confidence is higher in coverage of SHRA
activity, and prevailing SHRA are forecast in TAFs after 18Z. TSRA
will be locally heavy, and vis would likely be reduced to MVFR or
lower in heavier cells after ~19Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>008-016.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KDW