Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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464 FXUS64 KHUN 222304 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 604 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A broad sub-tropical ridge is in place across the TN Valley today aiding in the suppression of convection. A cu field developed with the onset of deeper mixing, but has subsided to some extent with moisture dispersion. Clouds atop the plateau so far have shown no sign of significant particle growth/aggregation, and any chances for shower development this afternoon still look very small to nil. Otherwise, hot temperatures in the low/mid 90s prevail across the area. Mixing of drier air aloft accompanied with mild dry air advection wrapping around the Srn Appalachians and into the area, are keeping heat index values down today. For tonight, quiet weather conditions are expected to prevail. Temperatures should fall into the upr 60s to lower 70s again tonight. Guidance was undercut a bit, considering recent warm biases in min temps in the relatively dry airmass regime. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The broad sub-tropical ridge will shift to the west tomorrow while a short wave begins to carve out a trough in the Grt Lakes region. A cold front trailing the developing sfc low will push southward into the OH/TN Valley region during the day. Warm and increasingly moist air ahead of the front will move eastward into the area, and along with increased dynamic forcing, generate a few showers and thunderstorms. As noted in hi-res guidance, the more intense cells may form along a line of sorts with the latest timing indicating movement across our area from the late afternoon into the evening. Rainfall would be heavy in some cells with PWs pushing ~2 in and modest MUCAPEs ~ 1.5-2 KJ/Kg. Otherwise, the risk for any severe weather appears very low. The front appears likely to push southward across the area while becoming increasingly non-descript. Nevertheless, mild dry air advection from modified continental air is expected to move into the area on Monday, pushing dew points that had risen ahead of the front, back down into the 60s for most areas. On Tuesday, a slightly more robust trough/front will begin working their way across the Central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a warmer/moister airmass will be swept out of the Plains ahead of the front and into the TN Valley. Temperatures may reach into the upper 90s for many locations on Tuesday, perhaps even topping 100 degrees for typically warmer areas, especially urban locations. The main caveat to the temperatures on Tuesday will be chances for increasing cloudiness and shower/thunderstorm activity during the afternoon, which may tend to hold the hotter temperatures at bay. Otherwise, this appears to the most likely day in which a Heat Advisory may be needed during the period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The heat finally breaks on Wednesday as another front pushes through the local forecast area. This front will bring much needed area wide showers and storms Wednesday into Thursday morning. Once again shear is quite weak, so not anticipating any severe storms. Given the cloud cover and precipitation, afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 80s to low 90s both Wednesday and Thursday. The upper level ridge begins to build back eastward and once again hot and humid conditions return to finish off the work week with afternoon highs returning to the low to mid 90s on Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Low confidence in the coverage of thunderstorms that may pop along a cold front tomorrow afternoon into early evening. Therefore, kept it out of this TAF package but included an increase in VFR cloud cover and near westerly winds. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....GH AVIATION...JMS