Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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434 FXUS64 KHUN 280128 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 828 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 828 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Showers have mostly subsided throughout the Tennessee Valley due to the loss of daytime heating with the exception of a few stray ones in northwestern AL. A low chance (15% or less) of rain exists through the next hour before subsiding to less than 5-10% overnight. With clearing skies accompanying light winds in the forecast, fog is looking more likely with this evening update. A low-medium chance (20-50%) of patchy fog exists throughout portions of the area with higher chances near bodies of water and in areas that received rainfall this afternoon. Otherwise, low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Southerly flow will return to the area on Friday as broad upper ridging spreads east from the central Plains. This will lead to increasing temperatures through the weekend with daily chances for showers and storms, mainly diurnally driven during peak heating hours. Shower/storm chances will be highest Saturday afternoon and evening, ranging from 40-60% along and west of I-65 and topping out near 70% over northeast AL. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s through Saturday, and with the increasing Gulf humidity, some locations could near Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday. Please remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks indoors or in shaded areas if spending time outdoors, as well as making sure outdoor pets/livestock have adequate heat protection. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s each night, offering little relief from the heat. Fog will also be possible each night, but low confidence due to questions about cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Sunday will bring a greater excessive heat risk, with temperatures warming a few more degrees with the building 8-5h heat dome across the southern U.S. However, a cold front will be undercutting the ridge on Sunday across the central Plains into the TN valley, will also bring our PoPs up above 50% for all areas, especially by midday into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the main hazards. As an upper trough drops into the northeast and mid Atlantic early next week, the 5h ridge will amplify and shift further east into the Gulf and Mid South regions. We will get some relief from the muggy conditions Monday into Tuesday before southerly flow redevelops by the middle of next week and brings sultry air back north along with highs back in the middle to upper 90s. Thus, excessive heat risk will increase once again. However, there is also some indication that the westerlies at 5h may flatten the upper high a bit by the middle of next week, including Independence Day, which may bring another boundary and potential MCS clusters further south into Mid South and TN valley. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Vicinity showers at KHSV are forecast to subside later this evening and VFR conditions are set to continue overnight through northern AL. However, there is a low chance of fog formation that may cause MVFR conditions due to lowered visibilities. However, confidence is not high enough at this point to include it in the official TAF package. As low chances of thunderstorms get reintroduced Friday afternoon, low chances of MVFR conditions return to both KMSL and KHSV as well. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...HC