281
FXUS64 KHUN 090558
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 852 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Mostly clear skies prevail across the central TN Valley this Sat
evening, although cloud cover will be spreading into the area from
the NW overnight as an MCS develops across SE MO. As this upper
wave translates more to the SE, isolated/scattered showers/tstms
will begin to spread into parts of the area early Sun morning.
Latest model suites suggest this oncoming precip will be on a
weakening trend as it crosses into the area with any tstms likely
being elevated in nature given the limited instability. Outflow
from this activity may then serve as a focus mech for additional
showers/tstms later in the day Sun. High pressure also continues
to move east of the area, allowing for the development of a light
return flow pattern. This should translate into seasonably warm
temps later tonight, with lows falling into the upper 60s/near
70F for most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A highly uncertain forecast is anticipated on Sunday. Around
daybreak, a MCS will be arriving into the Tennessee Valley from
the NW. Both timing and placement is uncertain at this time and
will likely remain that way until the thunderstorms form later
today. The good news is that any morning convection will be
elevated and not expected to be severe. By the afternoon and early
evening, a cold front moves through the area bringing some better
forcing to initiate storms. Depending where the MCS moves through
in the morning will determine the severe weather potential in the
evening. Best guess is that a residual outflow boundary will be
present near the TN River will be the focus of convective
initiation. Any storms that do develop will have plenty of
instability to work with, but little to no shear. Therefore,
damaging winds will be the primary concern with any storm Sunday
afternoon/evening. Storms come to an end shortly after sunset.

Once the cold front passes through Sunday night, drier and cooler
weather is forecast through the end of the short term period.
Expect afternoon highs on Monday and Tuesday to top out in the
lower 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Ridging in the central CONUS will set up at the end of the short
term resulting in a very dry air mass remaining in place through
the duration of the long term. While highs will gradually climb
back up to the high 80s, dry air aloft will greatly suppress rain
chances through the first half of the long term. Chances for rain
in the second half of the long term remain uncertain. Global
models indicate a possible split flow pattern through the end of
the work week in the form of a trough splitting off into the Gulf.
If the trough takes a more eastern track, this will favor low to
medium rain chances for the second half of the long term. If the
trough take a more southern track or struggles to form, this will
likely keep us mostly dry through the duration long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Thick layers of mid/high-lvl convective debris clouds will
continue to spread southeastward across northern AL early this
morning, ahead of an MCS (currently across western TN). Current
expectations are that the MCS will gradually weaken as it advances
further southeastward into our region, but should largely
survive, bringing impacts at the terminals btwn 10-14Z. We have
included a TEMPO group during this timeframe to account for MVFR
vsby reductions in locally heavy rain, and AWWs may also be
warranted for lightning and brief wind gusts of 30-40 knots.
Partial clearing is expected during the late morning/early aftn
period (in the wake of the morning MCS), with redevelopment of
additional but more scattered TSRA possible along a southward-
moving cold front btwn 22-02Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...GH
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...70/DD