522
FXUS64 KHUN 061137
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
637 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Early morning analysis shows a short wave at the tail end of a
longwave trough becoming partially closed off across the region.
This is the same wave that instigated shower and thunderstorm
development earlier in the evening. On the downshear side of the
shortwave and along a low-lvl convergent axis, a line of showers
and thunderstorms has developed early this morning. This was
progged fairly well in some of the 00Z hi-res CAMs, and these
showers are expected to continue to propagate generally eastward,
while individual cells move off to the NE. Most of this activity
noted on regional radars to our south currently is likely to
remain mostly to our south. However, showers may expand in
coverage as a cold front associated with the mid/upr short wave
crosses the area along with the advent of daytime heating. Best
chances for any showers/storms will be primarily in the SE half of
the area given the location/progression of the front during the
day. Temp/moisture and instability parameters would support a few
strong updrafts, but vertical wind/shear profiles generally are
not supportive of much in the way of storm organization today.

The front will cross the area today, with the NW wind shift
beginning this morning. Although, the low-lvl Td gradient will
lag behind the front so that we won`t begin to experience the true
dry air advection until Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A drier airmass will begin to filter into the area on Friday, with
dew point temperatures likely falling into the 50s. A WNW flow
pattern aloft during the weekend will tend to keep temperatures a
bit lower than normal with dry conditions expected through
Saturday. On Sunday, a longwave upr trough will begin to amplify
in the East CONUS, with another cold front moving southward
through the Miss/OH/TN Valley regions. Showers and thunderstorms
ahead of this front could begin to impact the area as early as
Sunday morning. Instability on Sunday could be supportive of some
strong updrafts, but shear profiles again do not appear to be
overly supportive of strong thunderstorm organization. Most of the
activity will probably be concentrated during the
morning/afternoon period before the front crosses the area later
in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The afore-mentioned cold front will probably move southward
through the TN Valley, and perhaps even farther into the Southeast
and Gulf Coastal Plain region early next week. This solution is
supported generally by the latest 00Z operational guidance suite.
However, some of the global ensemble suite is not supportive of
this solution and tend to indicate the front may have slower
movement through the region, perhaps stalling in the vicinity of
the TN Valley. So, slight chance POPs were retained for the
period from Monday through Wed next week to account for this
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Low stratus clouds with IFR and MVFR bases have developed across
the area early this morning and are impacting KHSV and KMSL TAF
sites. Eventual dissipation and/or lifting of the cloud bases is
expected, but confidence is low in exact timing. The TAF forecasts
hedged on the more optimistic side of the estimated timing
envelope, around 15-16Z. Afterwards, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...KDW