924
FXUS64 KHUN 271513
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1013 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

We have one last day of unsettled weather on tap. An upper-level
trough is allowing for some extra forcing for storms to develop
today. This along with some diurnal heating should allow for
scattered storms to build today. Coverage is forecast to be
higher in SW counties to the HSV metro given model trends. CAPE
should be moderate, with values closer to 1000-2000 J/kg. With
some lingering cloud cover, this may limit some activity from
being more widespread this afternoon.

With this, highs should stay primarily in the mid to upper-80s,
under mostly cloudy skies for most of the day. Despite the
"cooler" temperatures, it will still be humid, with dewpoints into
the mid-70s. Despite any potential locally gusty winds from
storms, winds should primarily come from the ENE at around 5-10
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The boundary will be south of us by tonight, but light east-
southeast flow may tend to keep some low cloud potential tonight,
along with patchy fog. The moist low levels will aid in afternoon
shower or thunderstorm development both Friday and into Saturday,
especially in our southeast counties. The greater chance will be
Saturday as the remnant vorticity lobe now dropping south
eventually gets carried east-northeast. Temperatures will warm
back into the lower 90s on Saturday. Heat index values may get
close to 105 in northwest AL, but most areas further east will
stay below 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Sunday will bring a greater excessive heat risk, with
temperatures warming a few more degrees with the building 8-5h
heat dome across the southern U.S. However, a cold front will be
undercutting the ridge on Sunday across the central Plains into
the TN valley, will also bring our PoPs up above 50% for all
areas, especially by midday into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds
and frequent lightning will be the main hazards.

As an upper trough drops into the northeast and mid Atlantic early
next week, the 5h ridge will amplify and shift further east into
the Gulf and Mid South regions. We will get some relief from
the muggy conditions Monday into Tuesday before southerly flow
redevelops by the middle of next week and brings sultry air back
north along with highs back in the middle to upper 90s. Thus,
excessive heat risk will increase once again. However, there is
also some indication that the westerlies at 5h may flatten the
upper high a bit by the middle of next week, including
Independence Day, which may bring another boundary and potential
MCS clusters further south into Mid South and TN valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Ceilings will vary at times this morning, but be predominantly in
the 015-025agl range (MVFR). A few patches of ceilings below
005agl (LIFR) and even some FG with visibility of 1/2SM or less
may occur as well until 13Z. Scattered -SHRA will become more
numerous this morning, with a few TSRA not ruled out. However,
have left TSRA out of the KMSL and KHSV TAFs for now due to low
probability. Ceilings are expected to lift above 030agl (VFR) by
~20Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17