091
FXUS64 KHUN 271820
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
120 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

We have one last day of unsettled weather on tap. An upper-level
trough is allowing for some extra forcing for storms to develop
today. This along with some diurnal heating should allow for
scattered storms to build today. Coverage is forecast to be
higher in SW counties to the HSV metro given model trends. CAPE
should be moderate, with values closer to 1000-2000 J/kg. With
some lingering cloud cover, this may limit some activity from
being more widespread this afternoon.

With this, highs should stay primarily in the mid to upper-80s,
under mostly cloudy skies for most of the day. Despite the
"cooler" temperatures, it will still be humid, with dewpoints into
the mid-70s. Despite any potential locally gusty winds from
storms, winds should primarily come from the ENE at around 5-10
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The boundary will be south of us by tonight, but light east-
southeast flow may tend to keep some low cloud potential tonight,
along with patchy fog. The moist low levels will aid in afternoon
shower or thunderstorm development both Friday and into Saturday,
especially in our southeast counties. The greater chance will be
Saturday as the remnant vorticity lobe now dropping south
eventually gets carried east-northeast. Temperatures will warm
back into the lower 90s on Saturday. Heat index values may get
close to 105 in northwest AL, but most areas further east will
stay below 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Sunday will bring a greater excessive heat risk, with
temperatures warming a few more degrees with the building 8-5h
heat dome across the southern U.S. However, a cold front will be
undercutting the ridge on Sunday across the central Plains into
the TN valley, will also bring our PoPs up above 50% for all
areas, especially by midday into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds
and frequent lightning will be the main hazards.

As an upper trough drops into the northeast and mid Atlantic early
next week, the 5h ridge will amplify and shift further east into
the Gulf and Mid South regions. We will get some relief from
the muggy conditions Monday into Tuesday before southerly flow
redevelops by the middle of next week and brings sultry air back
north along with highs back in the middle to upper 90s. Thus,
excessive heat risk will increase once again. However, there is
also some indication that the westerlies at 5h may flatten the
upper high a bit by the middle of next week, including
Independence Day, which may bring another boundary and potential
MCS clusters further south into Mid South and TN valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Scattered to numerous showers are currently developing near KHSV
and KMSL as of 18z. Some storms may develop later this afternoon
if we get more instability. MVFR conditions are predominately
expected at both KHSV and KMSL through a least 00z as we expect
lower ceilings with surrounding showers and storms. Winds
generally should be out of the NE at about 5-10 kts across the
area. After 00z, any showers and storms should begin to dissipate
and allow for better conditions at both terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Serre