645
FXUS64 KHUN 270535
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An upper level trough axis was dropping south through the mid
South and TN Valley this morning. A surface reflection of this
feature was a weak low over northern MS and a frontal boundary
snaking across TN into north GA and the Carolinas. A few showers
were redeveloping in central AL into eastern MS, while a few
showers and even a thunderstorm earlier redeveloped along the
boundary in western TN. The trough will continue to shift
southeast, while the surface boundary sags into north AL and
southern middle TN by this afternoon. Low level convergence along
this boundary and upward through the 8h layer will lend toward
continued development of showers and a few thunderstorms today. We
capped the PoP at around 50% given uncertainty on coverage. A
welcome reprieve from daytime highs in the 90s is expected today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The boundary will be south of us by tonight, but light east-
southeast flow may tend to keep some low cloud potential tonight,
along with patchy fog. The moist low levels will aid in afternoon
shower or thunderstorm development both Friday and into Saturday,
especially in our southeast counties. The greater chance will be
Saturday as the remnant vorticity lobe now dropping south
eventually gets carried east-northeast. Temperatures will warm
back into the lower 90s on Saturday. Heat index values may get
close to 105 in northwest AL, but most areas further east will
stay below 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Sunday will bring a greater excessive heat risk, with
temperatures warming a few more degrees with the building 8-5h
heat dome across the southern U.S. However, a cold front will be
undercutting the ridge on Sunday across the central Plains into
the TN valley, will also bring our PoPs up above 50% for all
areas, especially by midday into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds
and frequent lightning will be the main hazards.

As an upper trough drops into the northeast and mid Atlantic early
next week, the 5h ridge will amplify and shift further east into
the Gulf and Mid South regions. We will get some relief from
the muggy conditions Monday into Tuesday before southerly flow
redevelops by the middle of next week and brings sultry air back
north along with highs back in the middle to upper 90s. Thus,
excessive heat risk will increase once again. However, there is
also some indication that the westerlies at 5h may flatten the
upper high a bit by the middle of next week, including
Independence Day, which may bring another boundary and potential
MCS clusters further south into Mid South and TN valley.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions will transition to IFR (with ceilings below
010agl) by ~10Z. Ceilings will slowly rise above 015agl (MVFR) by
~15-16Z. Isolated to scattered -SHRA and perhaps a TSRA remain
possible through this period, but confidence is low. Conditions
should improve back to VFR with ceilings at or above 040agl by 20Z
with light northeast flow developing.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17