436
FXUS63 KICT 170739
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong south winds today with gusts 40 to 45 mph expected for
  areas along and west of I-135.

- Storm chances increase late Tue afternoon and evening over
  central KS along a slow moving cold front. Strong/severe
  storms possible with this activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough digging
over the Northern Intermountain with upper ridging over the
Southeast CONUS. At the surface, cold front extends from
Northern IA into central Nebraska and into far nw KS, with
elevated storms north of the front over northern Nebraska.

Lee troughing will further strengthen today as upper shortwave
approaches the Northern/Central Rockies. This will allow for
strong south winds by early this afternoon, especially for
areas along and especially west of I-135. In these locations we
are looking for sustained speeds around 30 mph with gusts 40-45
mph. Also looking for these strong winds to continue into the
early evening hours.

By Tue morning, upper energy will be moving out into the
Northern High Plains and at the same time cold front will slowly
make its way south. By 21z Tue the front is expected to stretch
from Eastern Nebraska to just north of KHYS and into western
KS. Storms are expected to develop along the front late Tue
afternoon and will become more numerous in the early evening as
low level jet impinges on the front. The big question will be
how far south storms are able to make it, with the better upper
support further north along with capping issues to the south.
For now will go with the thinking that locations along and north
of I-70 will have the higher storm chances. On Wed, cold front,
likely reinforced by outflow, will be draped across north-
central KS which may allow some convection to linger, at least
through the morning hours. However, by Wed evening into Thu, the
better storm chances will lift back into Nebraska.

By early Thu morning, upper troughing will continue to linger
over the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest. At the same
time, an upper impulse is expected to lift out of the Gulf and
into southwest TX by Thu morning. So to end the work week, the
better storm chances look to stay north and west of the forecast
area along with to the south associated with the tropical wave.
Upper energy is then expected to quickly lift out of the Great
Basin and across the Central/Northern Plains Fri night into Sat
morning. However, the better rain chances look to be north of
the forecast area, closer to the better upper dynamics.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Main aviation concern will be strong south winds today.

Shortwave trough is expected to dig across the Northern
Intermountain today. This will allow for lee troughing to
continue to strengthen, resulting in strong south winds. We are
looking for sustained south winds around 30 mph with gusts 40-45
mph for locations along and west of I-135. Confidence remains
high that VFR conditions will remain in place through the next
24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>051-067-068.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL