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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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475 FXUS63 KICT 300536 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1236 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms late this afternoon-evening across far southern and southeast KS; better chances developing overnight into Sunday morning generally along/west of the Flint Hills. - Cooler Sunday. - Active weather pattern thunderstorm-wise Sunday night-early Monday, and again late Tuesday through next week. - Possible heat advisory headlines once again Monday and Tuesday. - Cooler and drier by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A strong cold front is currently in the process of stalling over far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and will be a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening over far southern and southeast Kansas. Despite minimal upper support and warm mid-level temperatures, strong frontal convergence combined with very rich boundary layer moisture and strong surface heating should be enough to initiate storms. The combination of strong instability with modest to weak deep layer shear should support multi-cells with weak supercell structures. Isolated large hail is possible, although thinking the greater severe risk will be damaging downburst winds given impressive downdraft CAPE. Additionally, cannot rule out a landspout tornado or two given the strong/fat instability, low-level CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and low-level vorticity along the slow-moving frontal zone. Furthermore, locally intense rainfall rates exceeding 1-2+ inches per hour are likely given the above average precipitable waters. This could support localized flash flooding. OVERNIGHT--SUNDAY...Increasing warm advection and moisture transport north of the surface front around 850-700mb should support a gradual uptick in showers/thunderstorms overnight through Sunday morning. Thinking chances will probably be highest generally along and west of the Flint Hills. While limited instability and shear should prevent severe storms, a few of the stronger cores could support marginally severe hail. However, thinking the primary threat will be pockets of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding, given the continued rich precipitable water values and numerous shower/storm coverage. HREF output suggests the potential for isolated 2-4+ inch amounts through Sunday morning. Temperature-wise, increased clouds and a post-frontal airmass should keep Sunday temperatures seasonably cool to even below average. MONDAY--FRIDAY...The heat and humidity build back north across the region for Monday and Tuesday, with heat headlines once again possible, as afternoon through early evening heat indices climb into the 100-108 degree range. Additionally, model consensus progresses a front south into the region by late Tuesday, and stalls it across the region through late week. This, along with a few seasonably strong/deep upper troughs, will support periodic thunderstorm chances across the region late Tuesday through the end of the week. A seasonable combination of instability and deep layer shear should support strong to severe storm chances, along with locally heavy rainfall. NEXT WEEKEND...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports cooler and mostly dry weather by next Friday-Saturday, with lower dewpoints and seasonably cool to below average temperatures, as upper troughing deepens over the central and eastern CONUS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across portions of central and south central KS. The highest coverage should remain across south central KS through sunrise. More-widespread convection is expected after 10-12Z across central KS. The daytime convection Sunday should dwindle by mid to late afternoon. Winds will remain relatively light and from the northeast. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...BRB