181
FXUS63 KICT 140816
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions yielding heat indices in the upper
  90s to 100 is possible across portions of southern KS.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible mainly across central KS
  late this evening and into the overnight.

- Additional storms, some severe, possible again Saturday
  evening/night, mainly across central KS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Currently, upper ridging is overhead while a compact shortwave is
starting to push northeastward from the four corners region. A
somewhat stationary boundary extends from southeast Colorado
thru eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, while an outflow
boundary continues to move across far southeast Kansas and
southeast Missouri. Another hot summer day expected across the
area today with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Heat indices
across southern KS will be in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees, especially near the KS/OK border. Increasing
heights/mid level ridging will continue to build across the area
today keeping mostly quiet weather thru the day time hours. The
compact shortwave trough will start to emerge over the Rockies
this afternoon and will support vigorous storm activity across
portions of the High plains. This activity will likely spread
east late evening and overnight, potentially moving into central
KS by late evening/tonight. Strong to damaging winds would be
the main concern. While central KS has the best chance (30- 40%
chance) of seeing storm activity today, can`t rule out a rogue
storm this afternoon further southeast where an uncapped
environment and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE will exist admits little
shear. Again, ridging overhead will limit activity, but with a
weak sfc boundary/lingering outflow boundaries around, can`t
rule it out.

The compact shortwave trough will make slow progress over the
Plains. The trough axis will be over western KS by tomorrow
afternoon as it pushes the ridging east. Strong to marginally severe
storms will again be possible (20-30% chance), mainly across
central KS tomorrow evening and night.

Looking into late weekend and through next week, longwave troughing
will dominate the western CONUS while ridging dominates the eastern
CONUS resulting in continued southerly to southwesterly flow
overhead. Afternoon highs will remain in the 90s area wide through
Tuesday, as a front will move through mid week and cool down the
area by a few degrees. Expect temps in the upper 80s by mid next
week, along with intermittent chances of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Main aviation concern will be storms Fri night across central
KS.

Storms that developed and tracked south on Thu evening have
dissipated across southern KS over the last couple of hours.
Storms are expected to develop this afternoon over Eastern CO in
an upslope regime and as an upper impulse approaches the
Rockies. These storms will track east and northeast Fri evening
and will affect north central KS generally after 03z Sat. For
now will only run with a prob30 at KRSL-KGBD but confidence is
fairly low on how far south storms will make it. Have higher
confidence for areas north of our forecast area seeing storms
Fri night. Outside of the storms, VFR conditions are expected
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB/KMB
AVIATION...RBL