692
FXUS63 KICT 142344
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray shower/storm possible in southeast KS this afternoon

- Thunderstorms, some severe, expected this evening/overnight across
  central KS

- Additional storms possible Saturday and again Tuesday-Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

As of 230 PM, another warm afternoon was ongoing across the region
with temperatures in the low to middle 90s area-wide. A midlevel
ridge axis remains positioned overhead. Weak WAA near 700 mb and a
remnant MCV generated convection for much of the morning across
western KS. This activity has greatly decreased in intensity this
afternoon with the loss of substantial WAA. Closer to home, an axis
of higher low-level theta-e resides across southeast KS and
collocated with a cumulus field. A stray shower/storm is possible
through late afternoon (20% or less). No severe weather is expected.
Our attention then turns to the higher terrain of CO and NM where
convection is developing within an upslope regime. Tend to agree
with the latest HREF run with convection growing upscale and
moving northeast across portions of central and northern KS.
This track keeps the bulk of convection northwest of the
midlevel ridge axis. The most likely time for storms across
central KS appears to be in the 11PM to 3AM time frame.
Damaging winds up to 60 mph and brief heavy rainfall are the
chief concerns.

A stronger midlevel shortwave trough is poised to eject into the
state Saturday. This may focus storms across central and south
central KS. Transitioning into next week, the midlevel ridge axis
will amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the
Plains on the western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with
highs in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot
into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold
front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into the
MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return Tuesday
night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Showers and storms with gusty winds are possible along and north
of the I-70 corridor between 04Z-10Z tonight into early
Saturday morning. Winds may gust up to 40 to 50 knots as storms
move in from the west, but a weakening trend is expected as
storms progress eastward late tonight. This will primarily
impact KRSL, KGBD, KSLN, and surrounding areas. However, trends
will need to be monitors as it may be possible for storms to
extend as far south as KHUT. That being said, chances are low
enough for KHUT to omit any mention in the TAF at this time.

Otherwise, winds will continue to remain southerly or
southeasterly around 10-15 knots with VFR conditions expected
after 10Z Saturday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...JC