734
FXUS63 KICT 271745
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms this morning generally west of
  I-135 with more numerous storms tonight moving out of western
  KS.

- Storm chances return for Fri afternoon into Fri night as a
  cold front moves through with some severe storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough coming
onshore over the Pacific Northwest with upper ridging over the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure is centered over
the Upper Mississippi Valley with a stationary front down near
the Arklatex region.

Showers and storms are currently tracking out of northeast CO
and are about to move into northwest KS with this activity
developing in an area of 850-700 moisture transport. There also
appears to be a few minor upper perturbations moving out of the
Central Rockies. This activity is expected to continue tracking
east and by around 12z should be knocking on the door of our
forecast area and affecting at least the western portion of our
forecast area this morning. With lack of decent instability not
looking for anything severe this morning. Additional storms will
develop this afternoon over far western KS in a area of strong
instability and minimal capping. This activity will track east
into the early evening hours and will likely maintain due to
increasing 850mb theta-e advection as low level jet veers after
00z. Still looking like central KS to have the higher storm
chances this evening/overnight but still may see at least see
some iso/sct activity to the south. While a significant severe
episode does not look likely, there looks to be enough
instability and shear to at least get some low end severe
storms.

By Fri afternoon, shortwave trough will be moving into the
Northern Plains with a cold front also expected to be on the
move. By late afternoon Fri, cold front should stretch from
eastern Nebraska into north central KS and will continue
tracking south into the evening hours. With plenty of
instability, storms should try and develop along the front late
Fri afternoon, likely first northeast of the forecast area where
capping will be less. The big question will be how far west
storms will develop as the better upper dynamics remain north
and east of the forecast area. For now will go with the thinking
that if storms don`t make it into our forecast area late Fri
afternoon, they will early Fri evening as the front continues
south. Any storm that develops will have plenty of CAPE and
effective shear to produce large hail and damaging downburst
winds.

Still looking for the front to hang up near or just south of the
KS/OK border on Sat into Sat evening. We are expecting an
increase in storms Sat evening over southern KS as low level
jet impinges on the front. There is then good model agreement
in some additional shortwave energy tracking out of the
northwest CONUS Sun and across the Northern Rockies through
Monday. This will bring another chance for storms Sun night
across mainly central KS as some upper energy ejects out of the
Central Rockies.

As far as temps go, we are looking for highs around 100 for much
of the area on Fri with cooler reading for Sat into Sun.
However, we look to get back to above normal temps for the
start of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

- Timing and intensity of thunderstorm activity from 04Z to 12Z

VFR conditions are expected for the eight to ten hours of the
this TAF period. After 00Z this evening, thunderstorms will
develop to the west of the region and move into the region by
04Z. There is a concern with the timing and intensity of this
activity. At this time, only confident enough to put TEMPO
groups in KRSL and KGBD for a short period of time. VSBY
restriction will primarily be due to very heavy rain rather than
wind whipped rain. KSLN, KHUT, KICT and KCNU may not see
thunder at all so but the chances are too high to ignore. As
such, used PROB30s in the TAF at this time. By 14Z tomorrow,
the thunderstorm activity is expected to depart the region and
VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ELM