Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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196 FXUS61 KILN 281858 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 258 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm and humid air builds back in through the start of the weekend. Isolated showers return tonight, with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday into early Saturday night. Cold front moves through Saturday night and leaves a relatively cooler and drier air mass for the end of the weekend and start of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... High pressure will gradually retreat eastward today. Winds shifted towards the south-southeast, ushering in a slightly warmer air mass today. Clouds will continue to spill in from the west ahead of the next system, but conditions will remain dry through the daylight hours. Highs will climb into the middle 80s to lower 90s. With dewpoints creeping slightly higher today into the upper 60s to near 70, locations along/south of the OH River will observe heat indices near the middle to upper 90s. A warm frontal boundary will push northward through the Ohio Valley tonight. Low level moisture continues to build in, with a mid level cloud deck overspreading the region. This will limit cooling potential tonight, keeping lows in the 70s for our entire CWA. A few isolated showers may spawn earlier in the overnight period. Better chances for rain showers expected across portions of west-central OH and perhaps southeast IN early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... At this juncture, CAMs still remain all over the place on how to handle PoPs for Saturday. There is growing indication that our southern counties (closer towards the OH River) struggle to get any rainfall through Saturday morning. Better chances will certainly be present for locations along/north of I-70, but there are some CAMs that still struggle to develop much precip through Saturday morning in these areas. However, have reasonable confidence to put high chance or likely PoPs given that it will be more favorable to at least get some measurable precip. Pre frontal showers/storms still expected in some capacity through Saturday afternoon. Timing/placement will be key for a number of reasons, including the severe risk potential, along with determining how high heat indicies will climb for our southern counties near the OH River. A longer period without rainfall in our south could lead to some locations near 100 degree heat indicies given that dewpoints are expected to climb into the lower to middle 70s. While no official heat headlines are out as of now, have continued with a mention in the HWO. Just be mindful that a number of locations south of I-70 will have reasonable chances to reach HI values from the middle 90s to near 100 given the very humid air mass. Severe potential will be highest in the afternoon/evening when instability is maximized, but still not overly confident on this potential for our counties. CAPE values still may exceed 2000 J/kg, but poor mid level lapse rates will hinder large hail potential. While straight-line winds would be the primary threat, a non-zero threat still exists for an isolated tornado. Shear parameters not very favorable for rotating storms in our CWA, but rather it looks better for locations ENE of us. The machine learning products tend to agree with this as well. Flooding concerns remain unlikely for us as well given the antecedent dry soils and limited indication of multiple rounds storms producing heavy rainfall for any particular location. However, it should be noted that PWATs are 150-175% of normal, so any thunderstorm will have the potential for producing very efficient rainfall. Cold front begins to move through our CWA Saturday night, but by then, forcing appears more limited and thus coverage in precip will be more limited too. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in from the northwest on Sunday and Monday along with upper level troughing. Cool, dry air arrives with the high keeping temperatures below average for late June on northerly winds. Expect fair weather skies to start the week. The heat and humidity return on Tuesday when upper level troughing and surface high pressure shift east of the Ohio Valley. Growing chances for showers and thunderstorms start to accompany the summer- like conditions by midweek when a weak front starts approaching from the northwest. Afternoon shower and thunder chances could persist through the end of the week since the front appears very slow to progress south. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are favored through the rest of today, and perhaps for the entirety of the taf period. Main feature to monitor tonight into Friday is the potential for showers/storms. Warm front lifts north tonight, which could spawn an isolated shower. Coverage should be at a minimum with this. Better chances for showers and storms expected on Saturday with the approaching cold front. Still a lot of differences in models on the southern extent of these showers/storms, but KDAY/KCMH/KLCK will have better chances for precip on Saturday. Surface winds will be more out of the south today, around 10 kts or less. Winds will shift on Saturday towards the southwest, with occasional gusts of 20 kts possible. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Clark