747
FXUS61 KILN 300551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue into
tonight as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High
pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will build into the region
behind the front for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the northern
Great Lakes overnight into Sunday. This will drive a surface
cold front - currently over northern Indiana thru ILN/s area
late tonight into early Sunday.

Thunderstorms developed this afternoon n the moderately
unstable airmass ahead of this approaching cold front. The
strongest storms were observed in a bow echo segment that
produced damaging winds across portions of southeast Indiana and
southwest Ohio. These storms have cleared ILN/s area and
therefore the severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled.

The surface cold front drops southeast across the area later
tonight. This could lead to a few lingering showers and isolated
thunderstorms until the front moves through. A period of low
clouds will likely accompany the front and linger for several
hours in the low level CAA pattern.

Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph ahead of the front will become
northwest later tonight with the frontal passage. Lows tonight
will range from the mid 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Sunday
morning across our far southeast before the front clears the
area. CAA behind the front will lead to cooler temperatures on
Sunday with highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the
lower 80s in the southeast. We should also see some cu develop
in the CAA for partly cloudy skies on Sunday. These cu should
dissipate heading into Sunday evening with mostly clear skies
expected Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure passes overhead on Monday and Monday
night. Fair weather skies and below average temperatures can be
expected along with light northeasterly winds.

The surface high shifts east on Tuesday which will allow
southerly flow to redevelop over the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist
air returns along with height rises on the southwesterly winds.
By Wednesday, increasing afternoon rain chances accompany the
hot, humid air over the region. Diurnal shower/storm chances
persist through most of the week since the synoptic pattern
appears slow to modify. Toward the Friday timeframe, a weak cold
front may move through the Ohio Valley which may initially
increase shower/storm chances before leading to slight
moderation in temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will move southeast across the region between 06Z
and 18Z. A chance of a shower or storm will be possible until
frontal passage. In addition, some local BKN MVFR ceilings may
occur. Winds will veer to the north behind the front. By 15Z,
north winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots possible. Some SCT CAA cumulus clouds will occur behind
the front. Gustiness will diminish between 23Z and 01Z.

For tonight, high pressure will build southward into the
central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Skies will be mostly
clear. North to northeast winds will range between 5 and 10
knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman