Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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175 FXUS61 KILN 291817 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 217 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and humid airmass will interact with weak mid level disturbances today, resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move in from the northwest tonight, and then through the remainder of the area on Sunday. The precipitation threat will end with frontal passage. Cooler and drier air will return for the beginning of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very moist airmass is in place across the region this morning with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. These may even nudge up a bit more through this afternoon in continued moist southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. An area of showers and thunderstorms along a pre-frontal trough is moving into northwest portions of our area attm. This should continue to work its way east across mainly the northern portions of our area through early to mid afternoon. Temperatures will be a little tricky today as the pcpn and clouds may keep temps down at least somewhat across northern portions of our area. However, it does look like southern potions of our area may see a few more breaks through early to mid afternoon and this should help push temps up into the lower 90s. With the high dewpoints, this would nudge heat indicies up close to 100 degrees across parts of our south this afternoon. This should also allow for a little better instability across our south through early afternoon so we may begin to see some additional thunderstorms development southward along the pre- frontal boundary as we head into this afternoon. Mid level lapse rates will be fairly weak today but with deep layer shear in the 30-40 knot range, instability may still be strong enough to support a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. High PWs of 2+ inches will also lead to the potential for some heavy rain and localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... For tonight, afternoon convection will be making its way southeast. Our eyes will then turn to a cold front which will advance into our area from the northwest. Lift with the front appears weak, and with the larger scale lift remaining across Canada, coverage of showers and storms should be sparse. Lows will range from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. On Sunday, the cold front will pass southeast through the remainder of the region (southern/eastern zones). Once the front moves by, the pcpn threat will come to an end. Northwest to northerly flow will begin to advect drier and cooler air southward. Highs will range from the mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Period starts dry Sunday night through Tuesday with high pressure settling across the Great Lakes. A slow moving boundary interacting with a humid and unstable airmass will provide the focus for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Though chances for widespread severe weather appear to be muted by relatively weak winds aloft, there may be rounds of heavy rain from an atmosphere containing 1.5 to 2 inches PWAT. After below normal highs in the 70s to around 80 on Monday, a warming trend in the circulation around the high will allow readings into the 90s by Wednesday. A modest retreat to the mid and upper 80s is indicated for Thursday and Friday due to clouds, precip and slight cold advection associated with the boundary. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Occasional showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to affect the region this afternoon into early evening as mid level energy moves through the Ohio Valley. This is ahead of a cold front that will drop southeast across the area later tonight. This could lead to a few lingering showers and thunderstorms persisting into tonight until the front moves through. Some MVFR cigs will also likely develop with the front later tonight and continue into Sunday morning before improving back to VFR later Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Southwest winds ahead of the front will become northwest later tonight with the frontal passage. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL