703
FXUS61 KILN 260517
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
117 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into
Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
High pressure and a drier airmass will return for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms have exited southern portions of the
region leaving the area dry for the time being. Not expecting a
lot of development overnight, however what development there
will be is expected to be focused on the south and southwest
portions of the area. Temperatures are not expected to drop much
further overnight with lows generally in the upper 60s to around
70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The mid level short wave will move east across our area through
the day on Wednesday, helping to push an associated cold front
southeast across the Ohio Valley. Developing low and mid level
flow ahead of this will lead to increasing moisture advection,
with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms developing and
shifting southeast across the region through the day on
Wednesday. The strengthening wind fields ahead of this system
will lead to increasing deeper layer shear through the day with
the potential for some strong to severe storms ahead of the
front Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, depending on
how widespread and the effects of any morning pcpn, instability
may pose a limiting factor to a more widespread severe threat.
As of now, it appears the best chance for any severe storms
would be across southeast portions of our area where we should
have the best chance at some better instabilities. Highs on
Wednesday will range from the upper 70s in the northwest to the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees across our far southeast.

Showers and storms will taper off from the northwest Wednesday
evening as the cold front moves through. Lows Wednesday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift east through the Great Lakes
Thursday and Thursday night. This will provide cooler and drier
weather. As the high shifts off to the east on Friday, return flow
will bring low level moisture back into the Ohio Valley from the
south. A weak mid-level disturbance along with a surface warm front
could bring scattered storms into the region late Friday into Friday
night. However, the best chance for precipitation will arrive along
and ahead of the next cold front on Saturday. With PWATs near two
inches, will need to watch for a heavy rain threat. In addition,
heat indices could approach 100 degrees depending on cloud (and
precipitation) coverage and timing during the day.

More surface high pressure will follow this frontal system
Sunday into early next week, with temperatures falling back to near
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few rogue SHRA/TSRA will continue to percolate about the Tri-
State area through daybreak, potentially very briefly impacting
KCVG/KLUK. Elsewhere, expect mainly dry conditions to persist
through sunrise before widespread SHRA/TSRA moves in past mid-
morning.

Expect an initial cluster of SHRA/TSRA to develop/move into the
Tri-State after 12z, generally tracking to the ENE through the
morning into early afternoon, potentially impacting each of the
local sites to some degree, especially between about 14z-18z.
This may be followed by a several hour break mid afternoon,
especially for KCVG/KLUK/KILN where it will clear out faster
behind this initial activity. However, additional widespread
SHRA/TSRA will pivot back in from the N between about 22z-01z,
likely impacting each terminal for at least an hour or two with
some reduced VSBYs and TSRA. Did not yet have confidence to add
significantly reduced VSBYs into the fcst for the evening, but
certainly some MVFR/IFR VSBYs are to be expected in the heaviest
activity. Could also see some brief MVFR CIGs as well.

A drying trend should evolve from NW to SE after about 01z,
particularly for the local TAF sites. Light SW winds early in
the period will increase to about 12-15kts, with gusts to around
20kts, during the afternoon before abruptly shifting to out of
the N with the passage of the front during that 22z-01z time
frame. Light northerly winds at 5-7kts are expected for the
final part of the TAF period, with skies trending toward SKC
around/after 06z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC