Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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055 FXUS61 KILN 260001 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 801 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will return for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Remnant outflow boundary from the morning convection is still pushing south across the area and is currently moving through northern Kentucky and far south central Ohio. Despite the lack of better instability, the good convergence along this boundary is keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms going along and just behind it. These will likely continue to sag south across southern portions of our area over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, another area of convection back across central Illinois should continue to slide east-southeast along the boundary through late afternoon and early evening and may eventually affect southwest portions of our area heading into this evening. With winds becoming northerly behind the boundary, think the overall severe threat will be fairly limited through the rest of the afternoon/evening across our area. Expect a general lull in pcpn across our area later this evening and into the overnight hours. However, a mid level short wave will approach from the west later tonight and this could lead to some additional shower and embedded thunderstorm development late, primarily across western portions of the area. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The mid level short wave will move east across our area through the day on Wednesday, helping to push an associated cold front southeast across the Ohio Valley. Developing low and mid level flow ahead of this will lead to increasing moisture advection, with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms developing and shifting southeast across the region through the day on Wednesday. The strengthening wind fields ahead of this system will lead to increasing deeper layer shear through the day with the potential for some strong to severe storms ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, depending on how widespread and the effects of any morning pcpn, instability may pose a limiting factor to a more widespread severe threat. As of now, it appears the best chance for any severe storms would be across southeast portions of our area where we should have the best chance at some better instabilities. Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 70s in the northwest to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees across our far southeast. Showers and storms will taper off from the northwest Wednesday evening as the cold front moves through. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will shift east through the Great Lakes Thursday and Thursday night. This will provide cooler and drier weather. As the high shifts off to the east on Friday, return flow will bring low level moisture back into the Ohio Valley from the south. A weak mid-level disturbance along with a surface warm front could bring scattered storms into the region late Friday into Friday night. However, the best chance for precipitation will arrive along and ahead of the next cold front on Saturday. With PWATs near two inches, will need to watch for a heavy rain threat. In addition, heat indices could approach 100 degrees depending on cloud (and precipitation) coverage and timing during the day. More surface high pressure will follow this frontal system Sunday into early next week, with temperatures falling back to near normal values. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Some gusty winds with some light shower activity near KCVG and KLUK at the start of the TAF period. There is quite a bit of variability with convective development overnight and into the day on Wednesday. Trended towards the HRRR as it is handling current scenario better. Expect a period of dry conditions after initial light shower activity around KCVG and KLUK, with some shower activity moving into the region later in the overnight hours. Cannot rule out some thunderstorms, however probability was too low to include at this time. Going into the day on Wednesday expect additional shower and thunderstorm development, especially during the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Limited mention to shra and vcts until confidence in timing improves to time out tsra. Winds will pick up and some wind gusts will also be possible during that time. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...