241
FXUS61 KILN 040234
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1034 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through the Fourth of July holiday. On Friday, a
stronger system will move through the Ohio Valley, bringing
additional chances for storms. The area looks to dry out over
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convergent boundary has shifted across the far southern reaches
of the County Warning Area. With decreasing diurnal instability,
convection will continue to become more shallow. Based on deep
moisture remaining across the Ohio Valley, will need to continue
to monitor rain rates for isolated deeper and persistent cores.
Otherwise, coverage is likely to decrease through the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The forecast for the Fourth of July holiday is a tricky one,
given the weakly forced but very moist environment. Looking
aloft, as the shortwave that prompted Wednesday`s cold front
moves away from the region, and the associated cold front will
stall out and drape across our CWA. Given that we continue to
remain in a very moist airmass and that modest instability
builds back into the region, would expect at least some
convection during the day Thursday, however, confidence on
timing remains very low.

A handful of CAMs suggest early morning rounds of storms moving
from west to east, training along areas near the Ohio river with
a brief afternoon lull before a stronger afternoon line/MCS
moves through. Other guidance suggests a quieter morning with
scattered showers before a late afternoon MCS moves into the
region. Depending on timing of the late afternoon MCS (should it
occur), this may inhibit additional rounds of evening storms.

Either way, the signal is there for one or more repeated rounds
of showers/storms through our forecast area during the holiday.
Obviously, outside of any severe threat, lightning always poses
a threat, particularly when you have large numbers of people
gathered outside. As you celebrate the Fourth, plan to have
multiple ways to receive weather alerts, especially if you plan
to be out at events!

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
One last wave of showers and thunderstorms will move through on
Friday. At this point, this looks fairly disjointed with activity
moving through during the day ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Cannot
rule out some additional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
moves through late in the day into the early evening.

High pressure will build in for the weekend and persist into Monday.
Initially, this will bring a more seasonal airmass, but temperatures
will be rising back into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday.

Chance of showers and thunderstorms will return Monday night into
Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. Another high will bring the
return of dry conditions for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and storms will quickly depart to the east of the
terminals to start the TAF period and conditions will become
VFR. Guidance shows a hint of some patchy fog developing along
a weak boundary from DAY/ILN to near CMH/LCK... this makes some
sense with the early evening precipitation along with a stable
boundary layer overnight. In addition, models persist with a
brief MVFR stratus deck forming after sunrise in the very moist
low levels. Have low confidence here since climatology isn`t big
on morning stratus during midsummer.

Biggest impact during the TAF period will arrive in the form of
another cluster of showers and storms starting around midday and
moving quickly east through the terminals through mid-afternoon.
Will need to watch this for gusty wind potential once again due
to the timing and also some decent mid-level westerly winds,
which could tend to organize the storms.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...