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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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721 FXUS63 KILX 290204 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 904 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will bring beneficial rain to most of central Illinois late tonight. The risk for severe weather remains low (only around 5%). - There is only a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms Saturday. Once again, the severe risk is low (around 5%). - Drier, cooler, and less humid conditions evolve Saturday night through Monday; ideal for outdoor activities. - The relief from the heat and humidity will be brief as it makes a return by the middle of next week along with daily chances for rain starting Wednesday lasting into the holiday weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Updates this evening to decrease PoPs as an outgoing shortwave drifts off to the northeast with light showers tapering off behind the feature. Also, lowered overnight PoPs. A couple of bands of showers have been organizing closer to a cold front from the upper Midwest to the southern Plains, with the stronger activity taking place west of I-35 nearest the surface cold front. Mesoanlysis products based on the RAP model depict an axis of strong instability around 4000 J/kg just ahead of the cold front, trailing off to a couple hundred or less along the Mississippi River. A couple of 00Z high resolution model runs just coming in are following a trend of weakening pre-frontal convective bands shifting into central IL overnight, as well as keeping activity more scattered and disorganized. May need additional updates later to delay onset of higher PoPs, which currently shift into the area around midnight. 37 && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 At 230pm, day cloud phase distinction satellite shows scattered mid (mostly supercooled water, as the freezing level is >14,000 ft!) and high-level (ice) clouds across central Illinois, with scattered convection upstream across southeast Iowa where low level moisture transport is strong ahead of a shortwave trough. Current suite of CAMs suggests this wave of thunderstorm activity will gradually weaken as it becomes displaced from better instability and shear in west central/northwest Illinois, though this forecaster wasn`t confident enough to completely eradicate all mention from the forecast this evening; hence, 25-50% PoPs remain northwest of I-55 this evening. The better chance (60-80%) for precip will arrive later tonight, as storms developing closer to the upper-level forcing drift into our area while simultaneously weakening. It`s uncertain whether we`ll wind up with any hydrological or convective (wind, hail) issues tonight, but the CAMs continue to advertise the greatest thermodynamics to our southwest where storms developing along the northern periphery of the instability axis/LLJ across central/east Missouri may rob our region of any appreciable CAPE. Nonetheless, our morning sounding revealed a PWAT of 1.62 (near the climatological 90th percentile), and given continued warm/moist advection those values may surge to nearly 2 inches overnight - more than enough for efficient rain producers (especially given the depth of the warm cloud layer). NBM suggests the greatest chance (20-35%) for rain amounts surpassing 1 inch will be generally west of a Galesburg to Taylorville line, where some guidance even depicts some highly- localized 2+ inch totals. Precip loading could also contribute to downward momentum transport fostering gusty winds in the heaviest cells, especially if we struggle to decouple given continued mixing via the LLJ. In general, the severe risk appears low, with SPC maintaining just a level 1 of 5, marginal (5%), risk for severe weather. That holds for tomorrow as well, though tomorrow the reason for the marginal risk is slightly different. Recovery of instability (HREF mean is 1500-2500 for SBCAPE) in our area is well forecast by the 12z CAMs, though none of them are particularly aggressive in redevelopment of storms along/ahead of the cold front. If storms should develop, the unstable airmass would favor severe wind/hail with them, though at this point only about 20-30% of guidance shows redevelopment during the afternoon. We`ll be keeping a close eye on model trends for this activity. Tomorrow evening, quite the impressive cold front for this time of year will sink southward across central Illinois, bringing a quick drop in humidity (dewpoints are forecast to drop 15+ degrees, from mid 70s to upper 50s, in the span of 1-2 hours) and increase in wind (northwest gusts are forecast to reach 30+ mph). By Sunday morning, our northwest counties are likely to drop into the mid-upper 50s, while south of I-70 some spots might still be hovering around 70. Bumgardner .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A brief stretch of unseasonably cool and dry weather is on tap for Sunday and Monday as a strong mid to upper level ridge will be building to our west over the Great Plains. Unfortunately, the pleasant stretch of weather will be short lived as the ridge axis passes through by Monday evening, placing us back under a southerly flow regime once again by Tuesday. A weak mid level shortwave, that is expected to traverse across the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, may provide enough forcing aloft to support some rain. With the depth of moisture still in question, especially east of I- 55 in Illinois, only chance PoPs remain for most of the area on Wednesday. The 00z LREF members are in good consensus that the same upper level ridge that will bring us our cool down Sunday and Monday will setup over the SE CONUS, with 500mb heights of 594dm. The current placement of this 594dm heat dome puts us under the "ring of fire", giving us 30-50% PoPs daily from Wednesday through the end of the extended. With deep northwesterly flow aloft, along with rising heights, Sunday and Monday will be dry and unseasonably cool with widespread highs in the 70s. The coolest night in the next 7 days will be on Sunday night when lows are expected to drop into the 50s, bringing a springtime like chill back to the area. With southerly flow returning by Tuesday, temps will be on the rise with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday along with dewpoints reaching the lower 70s. The combination of heat and humidity will result in heat indices nearing or exceeding 100 degrees in some locations on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially south of I-70 in Illinois on Wednesday. Confidence in temps Thursday and Friday is lower due to the uncertainty in the strength and position of the nearby heat dome by the end of next week. Peine && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered showers will continue for an hour or two to start the TAF forecast period, but there is little chance of significant impact in terms of low cigs, vsbys, or thunderstorms. After a few hours, a line of thunderstorms is expected to organize to the west and sweep into the area by 05Z-07Z, and exit the central IL terminals by 09Z-12Z. This will likely be accompanied by brief MVFR cigs and vsbys. Following the departure of these thunderstorms, a period of MVFR cigs is expected from around 15Z-21Z before low cloud cover lifts and scatters out. Winds S around 10 kts, shifting to W after 15Z. 37 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$