Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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364 FXUS63 KIWX 292322 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 722 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A few storms may become severe. Strong to locally damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main threats. - Dry, cooler & less humid Sunday and Monday. Highs in the 70s. - Very warm Tuesday through Thursday (July 4th) with highs in the 80s to around 90. Chances for showers and storms each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Very warm and moist airmass in place today. Instability is definitely not lacking with around 5000 j/kg of SB CAPE present. Dewpoint depressions were small today which allowed for mostly cloudy conditions across most of the area with a few breaks of sum peeking in but quickly filling in with the surface warming. Surface dew points remained in the low to mid 70s for most of the area. The only issue is some capping and an absence of a decent lifting mechanism. With the late afternoon though we will see some of that capping erode and latest CAM models indicating some initiation of convection over the central parts of the CWA and then moving southeastward into this evening. Any future outflow boundaries could also spark further convective initiation as well. Currently, SPC has removed all mention of slight risk for our area but we are still in a marginal risk over the entire CWA. Effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40 knots will be present later today and that could help any storms that do develop to become organized. Storm relative helicity values will be less than 100 m2/s2 so will make tornado chances very low. However, with precipitable water values above 1.5 inches to around 2 inches, heavy rainfall will accompany these storms. Some localized nuisance flooding will be possible with these storms. Gusty winds with the additional precipitation loading will also be possible. As any of the storms that have developed move southeastward through the evening a drier and cooler airmass will move into the area in it`s wake with northwesterly flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of a broad ridge moving easterly over the southern CONUS. Decreasing clouds on Sunday with highs only in the 70s and even the upper 60s with a northwest wind bringing cooler temperatures from over Lake Michigan inland to near shore areas south and southeast of the lake. Winds will also be on the increase with gusts around 25 mph or so possible for Sunday. The increased winds and the northwesterly fetch will make for dangerous conditions for the beaches of Lake Michigan. A Beach Hazard statement will be in effect from 1 AM EDT until late Sunday night to address this hazard. Comfortable and drier conditions remain through at least Monday with high temperatures in the 70s with surface ridging again moving into the area bringing mostly clear skies and a return to warmer conditions. Warmer temperatures for the rest of the week will commence on Tuesday with highs back into the 80s and by Wednesday which looks to be the warmest day next week with highs around 90 and along with dew points back into the low 70s will make it uncomfortable once again. The increase in moisture and temperatures will also make for periods of increased chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday evening and through Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A chance for showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing during the first few hours of this forecast period around FWA, but otherwise expect VFR conditions until around 9z or so. Around that point, we could see some development of MVFR CIGs in the SBN area and maybe at FWA as well, but there`s less confidence in that occurring there. Expect that to moderate during the mid morning time frame back into VFR conditions. Winds are expected to veer more northerly after starting out of the southwest and will acquire some gustiness between 20 and 25 kts as early as the morning hours on Saturday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight CDT tonight through late Sunday night for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 AM EDT Sunday through late Sunday night for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Andersen AVIATION...Roller