Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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302 FXUS63 KIWX 262333 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 733 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon, mainly south of US-24. - Mild and dry conditions expected on Thursday. - Additional round of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday night and Saturday. Cool and dry conditions return for the second half of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon as a stalled frontal boundary becomes activated as a cold front thanks to a midlevel shortwave pivoting through the Great Lakes. Hi resolution guidance has this clearing our CWA from NW to SE by 6pm EDT this evening. Lightning, heavy downpours leading to localized flooding, gusty winds to 40mph, and small hail will be possible with the heavier cores. A very pleasant day looks to be on tap tomorrow as we`ll be dry with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the 50s. Enough said! Next chance for precipitation arrives Friday night into Saturday. The ingredients (SBCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 30- 40kts) look to be there for the possibility of severe weather during the afternoon on Saturday; however, some timing differences of these ingredients and the possible impacts from earlier convection precluded confidence for probabilities to be included on the Day 4 lookout. Keep an eye out for future updates over the next couple of days to see if these align. Regardless of severity, showers and thunderstorms are more than likely Friday night through Saturday. If you need to pick a day with better weather for outdoor activities, Sunday will be the choice with cool temperatures (highs in the low/mid 70s) and no precipitation. The caveat is if you are swimming in Lake Michigan, take the advise of local lifeguards as post- frontal northerly winds may lead to hazardous surf-zone conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 732 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Dry advection takes place tonight and Thursday with dew points in the 60s reaching the low to mid 50s by Thursday morning. NAM Bufkit soundings do indicate that temperatures may be able to fall back to within 3 to 5 degrees of the dew point, but it`ll be the wind increasing to above 5 kts that will likely keep fog formation at bay. Currently model and mos guidance keeps VFR conditions around, but future forecasters will want to check for stratus formation should enough moisture be retained overnight. Otherwise, expect only a few clouds around during the day Thursday as surface high pressure moves by just to the north. This evolution will allow primarily north winds through the period, but FWA starts westerly ahead of the high. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Norman AVIATION...Roller