Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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433 FXUS63 KIWX 261820 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 220 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon, mainly south of US-24. - Mild and dry conditions expected on Thursday. - Additional round of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday night and Saturday. Cool and dry conditions return for the second half of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon as a stalled frontal boundary becomes activated as a cold front thanks to a midlevel shortwave pivoting through the Great Lakes. Hi resolution guidance has this clearing our CWA from NW to SE by 6pm EDT this evening. Lightning, heavy downpours leading to localized flooding, gusty winds to 40mph, and small hail will be possible with the heavier cores. A very pleasant day looks to be on tap tomorrow as we`ll be dry with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the 50s. Enough said! Next chance for precipitation arrives Friday night into Saturday. The ingredients (SBCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 30- 40kts) look to be there for the possibility of severe weather during the afternoon on Saturday; however, some timing differences of these ingredients and the possible impacts from earlier convection precluded confidence for probabilities to be included on the Day 4 lookout. Keep an eye out for future updates over the next couple of days to see if these align. Regardless of severity, showers and thunderstorms are more than likely Friday night through Saturday. If you need to pick a day with better weather for outdoor activities, Sunday will be the choice with cool temperatures (highs in the low/mid 70s) and no precipitation. The caveat is if you are swimming in Lake Michigan, take the advise of local lifeguards as post- frontal northerly winds may lead to hazardous surf-zone conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Surface cold front and associated band of showers/isolated storms will clear KFWA vicinity in the 19Z-20Z timeframe. Low level dry air advection will build in behind this front, with a secondary sfc trough bringing reinforcing dry air advection late tonight into early Thursday. Decent low level lapse rates on Thursday will support mixing up to about 5000 feet, but low level wind profiles will be diminishing as sfc high pressure builds in which should result in north-northeast winds of 10 knots or less. VFR conditions should persist this period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Norman AVIATION...Marsili