635
FXUS63 KIWX 270515
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
115 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Patchy fog early this morning, primarily along and south of US
 24.

- Mild and dry conditions expected on Thursday.

- Additional round of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday
night and Saturday. Cool and dry conditions return for the second
half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon
as a stalled frontal boundary becomes activated as a cold front
thanks to a midlevel shortwave pivoting through the Great Lakes. Hi
resolution guidance has this clearing our CWA from NW to SE by 6pm
EDT this evening. Lightning, heavy downpours leading to localized
flooding, gusty winds to 40mph, and small hail will be possible with
the heavier cores.

A very pleasant day looks to be on tap tomorrow as we`ll be dry with
afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the 50s.
Enough said!

Next chance for precipitation arrives Friday night into Saturday.
The ingredients (SBCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-
 40kts) look to be there for the possibility of severe weather
during the afternoon on Saturday; however, some timing differences
of these ingredients and the possible impacts from earlier
convection precluded confidence for probabilities to be included on
the Day 4 lookout. Keep an eye out for future updates over the next
couple of days to see if these align. Regardless of severity,
showers and thunderstorms are more than likely Friday night through
Saturday. If you need to pick a day with better weather for outdoor
activities, Sunday will be the choice with cool temperatures (highs
in the low/mid 70s) and no precipitation. The caveat is if you are
swimming in Lake Michigan, take the advise of local lifeguards as
post- frontal northerly winds may lead to hazardous surf-zone
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Some BR/FG has developed on the interface of an east-west
oriented cold front south of KSBN, but in the vicinity of KFWA.
Therefore, no risk of fog at KSBN with their lower dew points
post- frontal. However, 2SM BR perhaps lingers at KFWA for most
of this morning. Dew points have been slowly falling there since
sunset but saturation likely prevails until sunrise. Medium
confidence on the duration and magnitude of visibility
restriction this morning.

Otherwise, high pressure in place today followed by high clouds
late.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Brown