788
FXUS64 KJAN 300404
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1104 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

No changes to the forecast at this time. Kept slight/chance pops
in the southwest for the next couple hours. There were some
lingering showers and an occasional thunderstorm moving south of
the area. Conditions were still warm and muggy with temperatures
near 80 and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Overnight
temperatures were expected to be generally steady through the
morning. Apparent temperatures across the western portions of the
area were near 90, so it may be a miserable night for some.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Tonight and tomorrow:  Dangerous heat continues to be the main
concern in the near term as dewpoints have held in the upper 70s
and even some spots with 80. Such dewpoints should only allow
temperatures to drop to the upper 70s to 80 overnight, furthering
heat stress. Hot and muggy conditions persist Sunday, so will
continue to carry heat headlines and messaging. Moisture pooling
ahead of frontal boundary could potentially push dewpoints even
higher tomorrow, with more widespread near 80/80 dewpoints. The
resulting heat indices will be in the 105-115 range. Sunday could
potentially be hotter than today given the CAMs tendency to hold
off convection until afternoon. Relief is in sight, albeit
temporary, as drier air ushers in in the wake of the cold front
early next week./SAS/

Sunday night through Friday night: Come Sunday evening wl still be
on the eastern periphery of a large 597dam ridge while a weak cold
front drops into the northern portions of our CWA. There will still
be the chance for rain along and ahead of the cold front during the
evening but model consensus is that it will be dry after midnight.
Come Monday morning the cold front is expected to be stalled across
the central portions of the CWA with drier air across our northern
zones. A surface high to the northeast will help maintain drier air
across our northern zones but the area south of Interstate 20 will
likely need a Heat Advisory as peak heat index values between 105F
and 110F are expected again. There will also be the chance of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
south of Interstate 20. This activity should end by early evening
and Monday night is expected to be dry. Tuesday the mid level ridge
is expected to become centered over north Mississippi and surface
ridging is expected to be nosing back across our CWA from the
northeast. This will lead to another day of hat and humidity,
especially across the southern half of the CWA where another Heat
Advisory will likely be needed. There will also be the diurnal chance
for convection across the southern half of the CWA.

Wednesday through Friday the mid level ridge will weaken and flatten
over our region. Afternoon highs will continue to be above normal
and combine with high humidity for heat index values above 105F each
day. As the mid level ridge breaks down there will be a greater
coverage of diurnally driven convection each day as well. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were still lingering
around the area. Much of the thunderstorm activity has dissipated
with the remaining showers expected to be done shortly after
sunset. Expecting clouds to thin out this evening with mid to
high clouds expected. There was some suggestion of fog overnight
in a few places, but left it out. Patchy fog will be possible at
the usual sites(KHBG,KPIB,KMEI)overnight.

Sunday, looking for convection to develop across area by
afternoon. The seabreeze may bring showers and a few storms into
the highway 84 corridor late morning/early afternoon and slowly
drift north. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible ahead
of the next boundary, mainly across the north by afternoon and
will slowly drift south through the day. Added VCTS to most zones
tomorrow with a short period of MVFR for KPIB, KHBG, KHKS and KJAN
from mid to late afternoon. Models suggest activity will continue
central and south into the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  93  76  94 /  10  60  20  30
Meridian      75  95  74  94 /  10  60  20  20
Vicksburg     77  95  76  94 /  10  40  20  20
Hattiesburg   77  95  77  97 /  20  60  30  50
Natchez       76  93  76  94 /  20  40  20  40
Greenville    79  96  75  91 /  10  60  10  10
Greenwood     77  95  73  93 /  10  60  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040>042-047-053-059-060.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ028>033-037>039-
     043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

07/