Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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060 FXUS64 KJAN 250525 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 707 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Isolated showers and a storm or two are possible the rest of this evening but a worked over boundary layer south of Interstate 20 and loss of daytime heating elsewhere in the CWA are quickly limiting the chance for additional convection this evening. Warm and muggy conditions expected overnight, but did not make many changes there at this time. Looking at latest guidance into Tuesday afternoon, did add some isolated shower and thunderstorm mention in the weather grids across most of the area for the afternoon hours. Though greater PWAT values will be focused in our southwestern zones, values of 1.6 inches or greater are expected except in all but the Golden Triangle area. As an upper-level high pressure center pivots translates eastward more over AL/TN tomorrow, light southerly flow will reinforce the humid air in support of isolated storm chances as well as dangerous heat conditions. Latest guidance suggests an Excessive Heat Warning may be needed for more of the area tomorrow as expected near-100 temps and mid-70s dew points result in heat index values near 110 degrees apart from (or before) afternoon showers and storms. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Tonight and Tuesday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1016mb high centered over the Tennessee valley that was pushing a weak backdoor cold front into northeast Mississippi. Farther south across our CWA between Interstate 20 and Highway 84, a prefrontal trough was drifting south and local radars showed a broken band of showers and a few thunderstorms associated with it. Both the cold front and prefrontal trough will continue drifting south this afternoon and evening. The cold front is expected to move into our northeast zones this evening before the cold front stalls. The prefrontal trough will be south of our CWA by this evening and end the rain chances across our southeast zones. Over our delta region temperatures and humidity have been greater than anticipated and prompted the issuance of an Excessive Heat Warning as heat index values exceeded 110F and will continue above 110F for several hours this afternoon before lowering this evening. Heat and humidity will remain a concern Tuesday. The surface high to our northeast will shift east allowing for a weak return flow by late afternoon. With temperatures topping out a couple degrees warmer Tuesday than today, an Excessive Heat Warning may be needed for our northwest again while the remainder of the CWA remains in a Heat Advisory. During the afternoon there will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over our southern zones but these will provide little relief from the heat. /22/ Tuesday night through next Monday... By Tuesday night into Wednesday, an upper shortwave is expected to dig into to northern MS, bringing a weak surface boundary across the northern portions of the CWA. Along with this, deep layer moisture will continue to be present, which will generate scattered showers and some storms across the region on Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Cloud cover and slightly lower dewpoints will decrease dangerous heat across central and eastern MS, but look to still flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. Elsewhere, Heat Indices will continue to range between 105-100 degF. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to migrate along central and southern portions of the CWA, which will shift isolated to showers southeastwards, with the greatest potential for precipitation in the Pine Belt region. Heat indices are expected to be subdued on Thursday, with indices struggling to meet Heat Advisory criteria. By Friday into the weekend, deep ridging will begin to take place, enabling W/NW flow into the region. In the mid-levels, a strong high pressure looks to migrate into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, increasing heights and allowing for a hotter airmass to dominate. The surface boundary looks to deviate southeastwards into the Gulf, which will confine precipitation chances east of I-55 and south of I- 20 on Friday afternoon. Elsewhere, drier air will begin to filter in from the northwest. By Saturday into Monday, precipitation will remain more diurnal in nature as daytime heating becomes more efficient due to increasing temperatures and decreasing cloud cover. Weekend temps will range from the middle to upper 90s, while heat indices climb into the 105-110+ range. Excessive heat products could be in the works as guidance becomes cohesive over the next several days. Either way, it will be HOT, so continue to take precautions as heat related illness will be likely. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Isolated SHRA or TS are possible mainly during the Tue afternoon hours, which may result in localized brief categorical reductions. Winds will be light. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 98 77 94 74 / 20 10 50 30 Meridian 101 74 97 72 / 10 10 50 40 Vicksburg 97 77 95 74 / 20 10 40 30 Hattiesburg 99 77 95 75 / 30 10 60 30 Natchez 96 75 94 74 / 20 10 30 30 Greenville 100 79 96 74 / 20 10 50 30 Greenwood 100 77 95 73 / 20 10 50 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ NF/22/AJ/DL