991
FXUS64 KJAN 211052
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
552 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Today and Tonight...no big changes to the forecast. Warm and
muggy conditions will continue. Winds will be light, so places
where mid 90s are likely, it may feel a little closer to 100.
Weak disturbances moving across the Gulf were pushing a few clouds
into the region, so that may help to lower temperatures slightly.
Some models in the latest run show some small rain chances
developing in the west/southwest. Added isolated showers and
thunderstorms to the Natchez area, so brief showers and maybe a
thunderstorm could bring some relief to heat. For now rain chances
are 20 percent or less and any activity should dissipate by early
evening. Otherwise, it should be generally clear.

Guidance came in with temperatures a few degrees warmer
for today, so heat index values may top out near 100 this
afternoon. Overnight temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, will
make it a challenge to stay cool also.

This weekend: Strong ridging both at the surface and aloft will hold
sway this weekend, resulting in mainly dry and increasingly warm
conditions with temps beginning to tease the triple digit mark in
some areas. However, we will begin to see signs of a change on
Sunday as low level flow becomes more southerly and dewpoints in the
70s hang around for more of the daytime hours. This will result in
heat indices approaching critical thresholds, with heat stress
becoming an increasing concern to begin the new week.

Next work week: The ridge will begin to shift westward, with
increasing troughing over the Atlantic states. This will result in
NW upper flow for our region and increasing prevalence of mid/upper
disturbances. Meanwhile moisture will continue to increase
throughout the column, and combined with sufficient forcing and
plentiful instability, it will result in an upward trend in rain
chances over the first half of next week. Initially, the eastern
half of the area will be favored for higher PoPs as some influence
from the ridge persists farther west. However, the ridge will
continue to retrograde, and by Wednesday into Thursday, guidance
continues to suggest a more pronounced shortwave and potential cold
front will bring greater rain and thunderstorm chances areawide. If
the cold front does make it this far south, it would bring an
intrusion of drier air but have less impact on actual temperatures.

Before rain and clouds become more common during the middle of the
week, the combination of increasing humidity with preexisting hot
conditions will yield an uptick in heat indices and associated heat
stress concerns on Monday and Tuesday. We continue to advertise an
elevated heat stress risk in our HWO graphics, and it is possible a
heat advisory may eventually be needed for this time frame. Beyond
Tuesday, this threat will become much more conditional upon coverage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
There were still a few clouds hanging around, but VFR conditions
are expected to prevail at most sites. Winds will be light,
generally less than 5 mph. Models show some rain around Natchez
this afternoon, but will hold on adding anything to the forecast
at this time. Rain chances are small generally 20 percent or less.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  71  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      95  69  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     93  71  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
Hattiesburg   95  71  98  74 /  10   0  10   0
Natchez       92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10   0
Greenville    95  73  98  75 /  10   0  10   0
Greenwood     95  72  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/07