Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231041 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
541 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
MVFR vsbys were reported at GWO and GTR 1030Z. These conditions
should improve to VFR by 1330Z and VFR conditions wl prevail
areawide through Thursday night. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: Continued dry with cooler than normal
temperatures. Broad upper level troughing will remain over the
region through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a
1021mb high centered over the ArkLaTex region. This surface high
will shift east through the period becoming centered over our CWA by
evening then shifting east of Mississippi by sunrise Friday. This
will lead to afternoon temperatures only topping out in the 70s at
most locations but our western most zones may reach 80F. With the
surface high over the CWA tonight, strong radiational cooling of our
cool dry airmass will likely lead to the coldest morning of the
week. Friday morning lows are expected to be in the lower 50s at
most locations but our normally colder locations in the northeast
may dip into the upper 40s. /22/

Late week-mid next week (Friday-next Wednesday)...

Late week-weekend (Fri-Sun): A picture perfect dry, fall fcst will
persist this weekend. At the start, cold core aloft will be ejecting
into S Canada, with another N stream trough digging down through the
Mid-N MS Valley/Great Lakes into the weekend. W-NW flow aloft & E-NE
flow in low-levels will persist through the weekend, with dry sfc
cold front progged to swing down across the Great Lakes, mid-S to
mid MS Valley, Ozarks & Great Plains. This front will stall to the N
into the weekend. Persistent broad subsidence will keep region dry,
with cool thermo will keep low temps & high temps below climo by
late week, while highs progged to warm closer to climo by late
weekend. Humidity levels will remain low but with limited gradient
winds, fire danger will remain low.

Next week (Mon-Wed): As trough ejects E across the NE & off the
Atlantic Seaboard, mid-level ridge axis will build into the N
Plains. Cutoff low is progged to migrate to E out of the Baja
Peninsula/Desert SW into W TX early next week. In the low-levels &
at the sfc, ridge of high pressure will remain over SE CONUS &
slowly build E. With return flow on W periphery of sfc ridge to E &
shortwave ridging to the W, sfc dewpoints are progged to climb back
into the low-mid 60s. There could be some moisture by Tues-Wed for
some iso rain showers in the W/SW by mid-week but confidence is
lower but left some iso chances in the fcst. High temps are expected
above climo in the mid-upper 80s. Lows will near climo in the upper
50s-low 60s Mon before above climo in low-mid 60s through mid-week.
Guid persist with E coast trough & backdoor front idea by mid-late
week, with ECMWF now on board & EPS/GEFS support. This could scour
out any progged rain chances into late next week. Stay tuned. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  52  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      75  50  76  53 /   0   0   1   1
Vicksburg     79  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   78  52  79  54 /   0   0   1   1
Natchez       77  53  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    78  51  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     77  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

22/DC


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